[SFDXA] 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

[Bill]

        Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
        Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
        Updated 2012 Nov 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2012


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event, with an
associated Earth-directed CME (estimated velocity of 664 km/s), observed
at 20/1241Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Region 1618 (N08E14) has retained its beta-gamma magnetic complexity.
New Region 1620 (S08E59) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
461 km/s at 20/1958Z. Total IMF reached 7.8 nT at 19/2347Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7.2 nT at 20/1725Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1277 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23
Nov). Protons have a slight chance to cross alert threshold on days one,
two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov) due to expected solar flare
activity from Region 1618. Further analysis is needed to determine the
geoeffectiveness of todays CME.


III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 141
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 140/135/135
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 122


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  006/005-006/005-007/009


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/20