[SFDXA] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
William Marx
bmarx at bellsouth.net
Fri Dec 28 16:07:47 EST 2012
> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
>
> ZCZC AP53
> QST de W1AW
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA December 28, 2012
> To all radio amateurs
>
> SB PROP ARL ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
>
> An error crept into data reported in last week's bulletin. Solar
> flux on December 19 was 113.4, not 117.5. The average for the week,
> 117.5, was transposed into the solar flux number for the last day of
> the reporting period. The Winter Solstice was on the date of the
> last Propagation Forecast Bulletin, ARLP051, on Friday December 21,
> at 1112z.
>
> Average daily solar flux was down this week about four points to
> 113.4, which coincidentally was the solar flux number for the last
> reporting day of the previous week.
>
> Average daily sunspot numbers were down 6.7 points to 65.4.
> Geomagnetic indices were very low and stable, which should please
> 160 meter operators, who are also enjoying the long periods of
> darkness in the Northern Hemisphere.
>
> Predicted solar flux from NOAA and USAF are 110 on December 28-30,
> 115 on December 31 through January 4, 105 on January 5-7, 110 and
> 115 on January 8-9, 120 on January 10-12, 115 in January 13-19, and
> 120 on January 20-22.
>
> Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 28-29, 5 on December 30
> through January 12, 10 on January 13, and 5 on January 14-25.
>
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH has his own geomagnetic forecast, and he says
> conditions will be quiet to unsettled on December 28-29, mostly
> quiet December 30-31, quiet on January 1-3, mostly quiet January 4,
> quiet to unsettled January 5, mostly quiet January 6, quiet on
> January 7-9, mostly quiet January 10, quiet to unsettled January 11,
> mostly quiet January 12, active to disturbed January 13, quiet to
> unsettled January 14, mostly quiet January 15, quiet to active
> January 16, and quiet January 17-19.
>
> Jeff, N8II from West Virginia wrote with some observations: "On
> Monday December 17 I got up early to find UA0ZN in zone 19 on 80 and
> finding not much else, decided to call CQ which resulted in a run of
> JAs around sunrise, most of which were very good copy ending with a
> JA5 who was S9+10dB! It was one of the best JA openings I have ever
> heard from here and my biggest 'run.' Signals from all over
> Australia were booming in on the Southern Cross net on 14.2385 MHz
> around 1300Z, and 12 meters was wide open to Central and Western
> Europe with a few Southern Europeans on 10 meters. VR2XMT was S7 on
> long-path on 12 meters around 1330Z.
>
> "I finally had some spare time on a decent sunny day Sunday,
> December 23, and fixed my 160 meter sloper feedline. It still needs
> some work, but is working like a champ! With 200 watts I was getting
> thru to European stations Sunday night with ease. Worked UX0ZA,
> another UR, SM6MCW, two Gs, DJ2EH (S9+), another DL, F6 (S9), OE5O,
> OK1DQT, OM2XW, and ON4IA (S9+). I also heard 9K2MU who had many USA
> stations calling him he could not hear. He was mainly working Europe
> and calling CQ.
>
> "Sunday morning was rather poor on 12 meters with some western EU Qs
> and a loud LA4. 10 was pretty close to dead, but there were a few
> western USA on in the afternoon. But 17 meters was wide open to
> Europe with good signals, whereas they would have been much weaker
> with higher SFI."
>
> If you are curious about Jeff's antennas, log into QRZ.com and check
> his page at http://www.qrz.com/db/N8II.
>
> Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington thinks we are past the peak
> of Cycle 24. He writes, "It's pretty evident to me that unless we
> see another re-generation of new sunspots, November of 2011 will be
> the peak of Cycle 24 (short as the activity was) as actual solar
> activity as defined by average monthly sunspots and solar flux. Both
> measures have been slowly on the decline since that date. Then we
> will all have to prepare for the coming Propagation Winter."
>
> Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas wrote: "The design of the
> Yaesu FT857-D requires one to 'scroll' from one band to another
> rather than a simple push of a button. I had the rig set on 2 meters
> Tuesday evening (December 25), and planned to scroll down to 40
> meters for the SKCC 2 hour sprint. Hokey Smokes! Voices on 6 when I
> hit that band section! Stopped and made a few contacts into
> Tennessee. I only caught things open from 12/26 0046z to 0050z.
>
> "Not too impressive, but more contacts than I have made in the past
> 2 months on 6 meters. Looking forward to the January 19th VHF
> contest."
>
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
>
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good
> information and tutorials on propagation at
> http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.
>
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
>
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
>
> Sunspot numbers for December 20 through 26 were 53, 55, 67, 90, 53,
> 58, and 82, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 114.1, 114.6,
> 115.3, 114.2, 113.1, 113, and 109.8, with a mean of 113.4. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 6, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of
> 3.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 2,
> with a mean of 2.7.
> NNNN
> /EX
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