[SFDXA] Hams Are Not Going Away

[Kai Siwiak]

Irwin
That is good news for the hobby!   I like to play with various numbers 
to guess at ham
trends. Try this:  the LOTW qsl rate is 2X46.6million/377.7 millions or 
about 25%. Since
The QSOs include LOTW members and non-members, so knowing the rate and 
the number
of LOTW users (45,500) we can guess that the QSOs include 45,500/0.25 = 
182,000 "active"
hams - at least active in the sense that they are LoTW users or they've 
worked LoTW users.
Since the are round 2,000,000 hams world wide, the "active" ones represent
   182,000/2,000,000 = 0.09 or 9%.    So 9% of the world ham population 
are is in some sense
"active".  If the USA is like to total than only 9% of 700,000 or  fewer 
than 64,000 are "active".
I've take a lot of liberty with the law of large numbers, but the 
results are interesting anyway.

73,
Kai

Irwin Wallace wrote:
> FYI
>
> U.S. Ham Population Tops 700,000
>
> For the first time ever, there are more than 700,000 licensed radio 
> amateurs in the United States. As of September 30, 2011, according to 
> the ARRL and AH0A.org, the total number of FCC amateur licensees was 
> 700,221. This represents a 145 percent increase over the U.S. ham 
> population in 1971, according to the ARRL, and an increase of more than 
> 200,000 in the past 20 years. After dipping between 2003 and 2007, 
> license numbers have risen steadily for the past four-plus years, 
> passing the 2003 peak of 687,860 in March 2010, according to statistics 
> tracked by Joe Speroni, AH0A. ARRL VEC Manager Maria Somma, AB1FM, says 
> there are currently approximately 150 ARRL-coordinated exam sessions 
> each week, compared with about 55 per week in the mid-1980s. (Keep these 
> numbers in mind next time someone tells you ham radio is dying.
>
>                                               Irwin, N4IEW
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