[South Florida DX Association] ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Fri May 27 16:54:12 EDT 2011

> 

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP21
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  May 27, 2011
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> The bulletin this week is coming to you from Felton, California,
> where your author is attending a camp for blues dancers.
> 
> Our Sun was certainly quieter this week.  Average daily sunspot
> numbers were down nearly 17 points to 51.6, and average daily solar
> flux declined nearly 9 points to 83.2.  The latest prediction is for
> solar flux to remain low at about 85 on May 27-29, 80 on May 30
> through June 3, then rise to 90 on June 4, then 85 on June 5-7, and
> back to 90 on June 8-11, peaking at 95 on June 12.
> 
> The same prediction has some geomagnetic activity this weekend, with
> planetary A index on May 27-30 at 10, 15, 12, and 10, then declining
> to 5 on May 31 and into the first week of June.  The moderate
> activity on Saturday (May 28) is due to a solar wind stream.
> 
> Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions on May
> 27, active conditions May 28, unsettled May 29-31, and quiet on June
> 1-2.
> 
> Things may seem quiet on this (the Earth-facing) side of our Sun,
> but a peek at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ shows much more activity
> on the far side.  All those white spots represent magnetic activity,
> and some could indicate sunspot activity.  If we assume that
> (depending partly on latitude) the Sun takes a little less than 28
> days (approximately 27.5 days) for a single revolution relative to
> Earth, and there are 12 longitudinal sectors displayed, each one
> represents about 2.29 days, or about 55 hours.  This can help you
> make a rough estimate of how long it takes an area on the far side
> to rotate across the horizon, which is at 90 degrees.
> 
> Currently three sunspot groups (numbered 1216, 1222 and 1223) are
> visible, and another may be emerging.
> 
> Somehow a month ago I missed this announcement about the solar flux
> and geophysical announcements on WWV going away.  Beginning
> September 6, there will be no more announcements at 18 minutes after
> the hour with solar flux, K and A index.  This was reported on the
> League website at
> http://www.arrl.org/news/space-weather-prediction-center-to-discontinue-broadcasts-on-wwv-
> and-wwvh.
> 
> Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent a report on
> May 23:  "There's not much of an exciting nature to report except
> that 15M openings to EU seem pretty commonplace up to at least 22Z
> with very good signals despite being well after dark (except in far
> western and NW EU), despite the lower flux which was 85 today, 5-23.
> Saturday 5-21, there was plenty of activity thru the day in the EA
> King of Spain and UN DX contests on 15M from 13Z when I turned on
> the radio.  There was the expected weakening of signals around noon
> and then strengths increasing from 19Z thru the early evening.  EU
> signals on 20 were weak in the morning which was pretty much
> expected due to the shift to summer conditions and increased
> absorption.  Around 1330-1430Z signals were good on 20 from JA
> across to Kazakhstan which was more active than usual with the UN DX
> Contest.  Around 24Z, I again was active on 20 most of the time
> until 03Z with best signals from UN in the 24Z hour and conditions
> gradually improved farther west with northern EU such as LY, SM, OH
> and EU Russians workable all with good signals, but some very
> fluttery.  Between the EU and AS Russians and UN's, I was pretty
> busy running stations from 02-03Z working a total of 15 UN regions
> for the day (almost every station is in a different region).  There
> was sporadic E to the upper Midwest on Sunday around 01Z with one
> loud signal from EN32 in IA on 6M and several on 10M.  12M is still
> frequently open to the south including Caribbean thru much of the
> day starting around 15Z".
> 
> Jon Pollock, K0ZN of DeSoto, Kansas (EM28) sent this in on May 21:
> "The upper HF bands were excellent last night.  I worked a bunch of
> Russian and European DX on 17 M between 10PM and Midnight.  The
> interesting part was 15 M.  At 11PM CDT, I tuned the band and found
> 3 groups of digital signals around 21.070.  Obviously, I have no
> idea what or who, but they were pretty strong.  So I tuned up in to
> the phone band, this is now about 11:15 PM and heard a 'local' rag
> chew between a couple of W4's and a W5.  It sounded like
> backscatter.  Then I heard K0FPL in Kansas City chatting with AB0RJ
> in St. Louis via 250 mile back scatter path.
> 
> I read the mail on their QSO, but no other signals on the band. It
> sounded very dead.  Then I heard a 'break', someone wanting to break
> into their QSO.  It was a strong signal so I figured someone local.
> NOT!  It was E51CG in the Cook Islands!  Holy Toledo!  The Western
> Pacific!  By now it was well after 11 PM CDT.
> 
> Another case of 15 M being 'dead' in the middle of the night.  The
> E51 guy chatted with them for about 10 minutes and gave the locals,
> 10 db over S-9 reports in Raratonga, Cook Islands!
> 
> Trust me, the sunspots are back.  Several guys have been commenting
> that they have not heard propagation like this in years and years.
> Could we be lucky enough to have another really big sunspot peak?
> 
> I worked a KL7 in Western Alaska at 11 PM CDT on 15 M CW last night.
> THAT is crazy stuff compared to what we been seeing for years.
> Maybe after that crazy long multi year cycle low, we are going to
> get a good one."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
> past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good
> information and tutorials on propagation at
> http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25 were 36, 33, 44, 47, 37, 23,
> and 23, with a mean of 34.7. 10.7 cm flux was 84.4, 83.7, 83.6,
> 84.5, 84.1, 81.7, and 80.3, with a mean of 83.2.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, and 4, with a mean of
> 4.1.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 4, 3, 4, 5, and
> 2, with a mean of 3.1.
> NNNN
> /EX