[South Florida DX Association] ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

ZCZC AP04 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004 >From Tad 
Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA January 28, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP 
ARL ARLP004 ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers 
rose over the past week (ending January 26) by 11.3 points to 32.6, 
compared to the previous week. Average daily solar flux rose 3.1 points 
to 83.5. Planetary A index average was down two points to 2.9, and 
mid-latitude A index was down 1.5 points to 2.4. On Thursday, January 27 
the sunspot number was 0, but a new spot is emerging near the horizon in 
the southeast quadrant. The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF shows lower 
solar activity, with solar flux for January 28 at 79, then 80 for 
January 29 through February 6, and 82 for February 7-22, and 88 on 
February 23. This forecast is from Thursday, January 27 and is much more 
optimistic than the Wednesday forecast, which was reported in the ARRL 
Letter. NOAA/USAF shows a planetary A index of 5 on January 28 through 
February 2, then 8 on February 3, 12 on February 4, and 8 on February 5. 
Geophysical Institute Prague sees quiet conditions January 28 through 
February 1, quiet to unsettled February 2 and unsettled February 3. This 
weekend is the CQ World Wide 160-Meter CW Contest, and geomagnetic 
conditions look stable, which is a favorable condition for this contest. 
Ron McCollum, W7GTF sent an image of the cover of the March, 1956 issue 
of CQ Magazine, which has a picture of a solar disc with sunspots, and 
the headline, "Sunspot Report: ONCE IN A LIFETIME CONDITIONS - CQ 
EXCLUSIVE." Of course, as we know, after this magazine appeared on 
newsstands 55 years ago, conditions got even better over the next couple 
of years. Ron wrote, "While cleaning out our family home (of 41 years) 
in Seattle in preparation to sell, and to finally get rid of nearly 50 
years of radio magazines, I kept this CQ." What makes me nervous though 
is his statement "to finally get rid of." Seattle has a very convenient 
and efficient recycling system that includes curbside pickup, which may 
make disposal a little too convenient. I certainly hope he found a good 
home for these journals. After all, they aren't making any more of them. 
Most of the great old issues of QST from the 1920s and 1930s disappeared 
in World War II paper drives. While not related to amateur radio or 
propagation, Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who lives far off the grid at 
Stehekin, Washington (his station location listed in the FCC database is 
"1.2 miles up Company Creek Road!") sent in a useful, interesting and 
educational URL (see http://snipurl.com/1xal41) linking to a 15-part 
series on mathematics by Dr. Steven Strogatz that appeared last year in 
the New York Times. This series focuses on a practical understanding of 
a wide range of mathematics for lay people, such as myself. STEREO 
coverage, for all practical purposes, now displays the entire Sun. It 
recently passed 99.7%, and by February 1 will surpass 99.8% coverage. At 
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov you can only see a narrow slit of darkness 
on the Sun's far side, and on Friday morning the new emerging sunspot 
region shows as a bright white area just this side of -90 degrees 
longitude in our Sun's southern hemisphere. NW7US has a page on 
"De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling" at 
http://hfradio.org/ace-hf/ace-hf-demystified.html. Here you can find 
some examples of coverage maps, which we showed how to generate at 
http://www.voacap.com/coverage.html in last week's Propagation Forecast 
Bulletin ARLP003. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for 
our readers, email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net. For more information 
concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service 
web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an 
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see 
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past 
propagation bulletins is at 
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good 
information and tutorials on propagation at 
http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html. Monthly propagation charts 
between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at 
http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email 
distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot 
numbers for January 20 through 26 were 32, 42, 36, 38, 28, 27, and 25, 
with a mean of 32.6. 10.7 cm flux was 82.3, 87.5, 87.7, 84.3, 82.5, 80.5 
and 80 with a mean of 83.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 2, 
2, 3, 4 and 3 with a mean of 2.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 
4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3 and 2 with a mean of 2.4. NNNN /EX