[SFDXA] Fwd: ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

> 

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP51
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 16, 2011
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar activity dropped this week, with average daily sunspot numbers
> declining over 39 points to 94.7.  It's been 13 weeks since the
> average daily sunspot number for the week was that low or lower,
> when Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP037 reported an average of
> 91.7.  The daily sunspot number has been lower than this week's
> average starting December 12, when it was 70, and has since been 77,
> 65 and 44 through December 15.
> 
> No new sunspots emerged on December 9-12, then sunspot group 1376
> appeared on December 13, and 1377 on December 14.
> 
> The latest USAF/NOAA forecast has solar flux for December 16-19 at
> 124, then 122 on December 20 and 120 on December 21-23. Then it
> jumps to 150 on December 24-26, 140 on December 27-28, and 145 on
> December 29 through January 4. It then rises to a maximum of 160 on
> January 8-14, 2012.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-25, 8 on December
> 26-29, 5 on December 30 through January 4, 2012, 8 on January 5-6,
> then 5 on January 7-21.
> 
> Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December
> 16-18, quiet to unsettled December 19, unsettled December 20, and
> quiet December 21-22.
> 
> Ed McKie, KB5GT of Yazoo City, Mississippi wrote in about a tool on
> http://www.spaceweather.com for looking at past solar activity by
> just entering a date.
> 
> It is at http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm and Ed
> notes that it hasn't been updated with new data as of a couple of
> years back.  No word from the spaceweather.com web master, but
> perhaps it wasn't meant to be updated, only providing looks at past
> sunspot activity prior to the date it was created.
> 
> By the way, for a look at Ed's fine old radios, log in at QRZ.com
> (free) and go to http://www.qrz.com/db/kb5gt. Click on the photo in
> the upper right for a closer look.
> 
> Propagation reports for the ARRL 10 Meter contest last weekend were
> positive.  Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington commented,
> "Conditions during the ARRL 10 Meter Contest were great as expected
> with the higher solar flux. Personally I feel 10 meter propagation
> has not been this good for the contest since 2002."
> 
> He noted that for 2002 and 2003, solar flux in early December was
> approximately 150 and 102.  For 2010 and 2011 it was 87 and 140.
> Randy noted, "What a great change!  Listening to the QSOs, it was
> like we all had a new horse to ride."
> 
> Rick Cincotta, KI4FW of Arlington, Virginia noted some curious short
> skip propagation last weekend.  He writes, "During the 10m contest
> on the East Coast in the morning and early afternoon (both days),
> when the band was opened to Europe and the US West Coast (S9+), I
> could hear stations, very weakly, calling from locations nearby,
> closer than the usual E-S 'doughnut' that I'm familiar with from 6M
> (these guys were from eastern OH, southern NY and northern NJ, RI,
> CT, NC).  They never got louder than S1, but I could make out their
> call signs if I cleaned the wax out of my ears and held my breath --
> so to speak.  I'm QRP, so I was only able to work a couple of them
> in NY."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good
> information and tutorials on propagation at
> http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14 were 142, 116, 90, 103,
> 70, 77, and 65, with a mean of 94.7. 10.7 cm flux was 144.8, 143.5,
> 140, 134.3, 131.5, 133.1, and 132, with a mean of 137. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 1, 1, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 1, with a mean of
> 2.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 5, and 2,
> with a mean of 3.9.
> NNNN
> /EX