[South Florida DX Association] ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

Bill bmarx at bellsouth.net
Sun Nov 14 08:42:49 EST 2010


ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
 >From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 12, 2010
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased over the past 
week, with sunspot numbers up 7.4 points to 33.1 and solar flux up 2.1 
points to 84.2.  Four new sunspot groups appeared since November 4.  For 
some reason NOAA is currently showing a sunspot number of zero for 
Thursday, November 11, yet there are spots visible.  In fact, the total 
sunspot area increased by 57% from November 10 to 11, and the sunspot 
number on November 10 was 55. On early Friday morning a peek at 
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt shows the zero sunspot 
number for yesterday, but perhaps by the time you read this, it will be 
corrected.

The latest forecast shows predicted solar flux at 85 on November 12-13, 
84 on November 14-15, and 83 on November 16-18.  Predicted planetary 
index for November 12-21 is 10, 10, 8, 8, 7, 5, 5, 20, 15
and 10.

Last year Steve Nichols, G0KYA wrote the bulletin for us on October 30, 
2009, and he has just published a free online book with G3NYK. The title 
is "Understanding LF and HF Propagation," and you can download it from 
Steve's blog at http://www.g0kya.blogspot.com/


Don Kalinowski, NJ2E sent a link to a blog on the Aviation Week and 
Space Technology web site about a new international initiative to work 
on space weather issues.  You can read it at
http://snipurl.com/1ftp42.  In the article is a link to a series from 
NASA explaining space weather.  See it at http://tinyurl.com/2ak5g9f.

We got mail about ARRL CW Sweepstakes last weekend.  Don Lynch, W4ZYT of 
Virginia Beach, Virginia wrote, "We operated from the Outer Banks of 
North Carolina, and did well on 15 through 80 meters.  We did not 
operate 160, and found 10 meters so unproductive that we made no 
contacts there.  15 was surprisingly good during the day and more 
productive than I expected.

"I found all the bands were long - I was working west coast stations on 
80 meters at 0600 UTC, and on 40, could easily work W6 and W7 and KH6 
stations, but had trouble connecting with New England and Florida.

"Our group worked the VY1 as our first QSO and then missed the sweep 
because of Nebraska."

Paul Mackanos, K2DB wrote, "I started out on 40 and it was the best 
start we ever had at K2NNY. Band was great, we ran 40 then went to 80 
and had the same conditions, GREAT, everything went well, super rates, 
etc, until daylight on Sunday, then everything seemed to die down.

"We could never get anything going on Sunday. Just limped along, maybe 
we worked everyone over night on 80!"

Jim Jordan, K4QPL wrote, "I thought propagation was very 'normal' for 
the time of year, with 80M on the East Coast being better than average. 
  This was my first time QRP so I was a bit more sensitive
to 'softness' in prop. Really don't have time or memory to give a blow 
by blow hourly report.

"80M- No weird going long as it sometimes does in winter and I heard 
happened earlier in the week. On the other hand, with the storms having 
moved out, QRN was low so weaker stations not masked in noise. QRP was 
good for the entire east coast and to the Rockies and I got several 'FB 
QRP SIG' comments. Antenna is an inverted V with apex at about 60'. 
Occasional QSOs with west coast but generally with the stations known to 
have good antennas and 'ears.'

"40M- For some reason 40 is never my best band despite it being a 'money 
band' for others. It performed about at par with a bit more range into 
the west than 80 as the skip lengthened. But for sheer
numbers, 80 still came in better for me.

"20M also performed pretty much as expected. Good transcontinental prop 
to help me fill in western and Canadian mults and S&P (search and 
pounce) the ones I couldn't work on 80. Went long enough to also get KH6 
and KL7 mults. Hard to hold a run frequency there except way high in the 
band.

"15M was surprisingly good and exhibited a lot of normal 20M 
characteristics. As I only have a tribander for 10-15-20 I sometimes put 
my second radio with a 40M dipole on 15 while running 20 and it
seemed to do as well as the tribander if not better for S&P.  Maybe the 
higher angle was getting more refraction in target areas when the band 
was perhaps actually longer. 15 also did well as a primary
band for a short time but didn't generate the same volume for me. Tried 
a couple runs with both antennas but didn't seem to support QRP very well.

"10M- Never went there. Flipped the Orion II to 10 every now and then on 
Sunday afternoon and could tell from the display nothing was  happening."

Ted Saba, KN5O who operated W5RU wrote, "From W5-land near New Orleans, 
we found 80M to be in great shape.  In fact, we made nearly as many Qs 
on 80 as we did on 40M.  (I use a 40M moxon at 86ft and a phased pair of 
1/4-wave verticals on 80).  80 was good all over, very low QRN.  We may 
have benefited more by moving to 80 sooner than we did.

"Looking at the log, by the time we switched from 20m to 40m, 40 had 
gone long. Normally we can work the close in sections, NFL, WCF, SFL, AL 
and sometimes MS/AR with relative ease.  Not so this year. Skip zone had 
to be a good 700+ miles from us.

"20m was its usual crowded self - it is where we normally start and can 
run for about 3-4 hours,  we did so this year as usual.  I found 20m 
typical.

"15m is terrible for us. 1st skip zone is about 1300+ miles I would 
guess.  Only good for AK, PAC, WA, OR, CA, AZ and a few Canadian 
provinces - VY1, VY0, BC, AB and SK.  Occasionally we would hear the far 
NE, but not consistently."

Tim Prosser, KT8K wrote, "20m and 40m went long fairly early, but noise 
levels were fortunately fairly low on 80m at my location (SE Mich) - 
about S7 on my Orion.  My K9AY loop (with new termination resistor) did 
a fantastic job of reducing that to S1 while signals only dropped to 
S5-7 - much easier on the ears.

"Propagation on 40m was a bit spotty, and was better as always while I 
was in the gray line zone.

"80m was great and I got great signal reports from my 5 Watts and wires 
in the trees as far away as Hawaii and LAX."

Connie Marshall, K5CM wrote, "Conditions were good in general, but 
better the first day. Being in the center of the USA has both advantage 
and disadvantages. It's an advantage on 80 meters where
conditions were very good Saturday night (the largest number of Qs came 
on 80 with 538). It's a disadvantage on 15m, where skip was just too 
long to work anything but the very edges of the East and
West coast and mainly just the West. Was hoping for a little Es to help 
prop on 15 and 10 meters, but no luck this year. It's still a little 
early for the winter time Es season, which as you know,
usually peaks in Dec/Jan.  40 meters was good with East coast stations 
  being heard in the middle of the day. We probably should have spent 
more time on 40.  20 meter prop was good but very
crowded, especially at the beginning of the contest. We still had a good 
contest, setting a new Multi-op CW-SS record for Oklahoma."

Bob Norin, W7YAQ wrote, "I had not been on the air for two months 
preceding the SS.  But managed to put in the full 24 hours in the CW SS. 
  Running QRP, and having a 3-el SteppIR for 20-10, I was hoping for a 
nice 10 meter opening, and evening openings on 20.  QRP on the low bands 
is not always a lot of fun.

"Here are my observations by band:

"10 meters:  [3-el SteppIR at 70'] We had an opening Sunday morning from 
Central Oregon to the east coast.  Signals were very good, but there 
just wasn't much activity.  Between 1724 and 1814 UTC I worked 11 
stations in MAR, QC, ON, ENY, WNY, MDC, EPA, VA, TN, and GA.

"15 meters:  [3-el SteppIR at 70'] Generally good conditions, better 
than 2009 and 2008.

"20 meters:  [3-el SteppIR at 70'] Band closed at sunset both days.No 
short skip to BC/AB/WA/CA/ID/MT/NV this year.

"40 meters:  [SteppIR trombone dipole at 70'] Good conditions Saturday 
evening.  Seemed to close shortly after sunset Sunday. (Maybe everybody 
just went to 80)

"80 meters:  [Inv vee at 65'] Seemed in great shape with signals booming 
in from all over NA.  Made some east coast QSOs late Saturday night. 
  Running QRP, however, I would prefer the loud
signals to only be from the western NA, as can distinguish which ones I 
can work better.  If I were running 100 watts, I would have loved 80 
this weekend!

"I have operated the last 3 SS contests QRP and with same antennas."

Stu Mitchell, W7IY of Stafford, Virginia wrote, "I operated unassisted 
QRP from VA again this year at W4NF's station. The bands seemed in 
pretty good shape and matched the VOACAP predictions. I
started on 20M and had no problem working CA, WA and OR. Although, 20M 
seemed pretty quiet before the contest. It was hard to tell if the solar 
activity was the culprit or people were just getting in a
last minute nap. 20M closed around night fall, so I moved to 40M. 
Nothing unusual there, but it seemed like there were fewer people to 
work. The band was quiet with no QSB.

"During the evening, I spent the vast majority of my time on 80M, 
routinely checking 40M. Hawaii (0600Z on 40M) appeared on time and was 
easy to work. No QRN or QSB on both bands. If a station was over S5, I 
was able to work them without any problem at all. I was able to run 
several times with good results.

"I experienced the typical doldrums during the day on the higher  bands. 
15M opened for a bit to the TX, NM and CA. My first 15M QSO was at 1542Z 
and my last was at 1755Z. I worked Alaska at 1700Z on 15M. No QSB on 
either 15 or 20. 10M never opened for me.

"Through the second diurnal shift, I made my way back to 80M through 
40M. 40M seemed much quieter during the last few hours of the contest, 
although I kept sweeping the band with my second radio looking for ID. 
Finally, at 0139Z, I came across K0TO on 80M and completed Worked All 
States. Didn't get a clean sweep. Missed MB, NL, NWT. I heard MB and 
NWT, but the pileups were too big for my QRP station."

Tim Kresky, AB0S wrote, "From Kansas, 20m, 40m, and 80m were good. Very 
little noise on the low bands.  10m was dead.  15m had some activity, 
but not enough for us to spend any useful time there.  I suspect the 
skip was such on 15m that the coasts had a great time talking to each 
other, but it was just a little too long for us to hear most stations."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email 
the author at, k7ra at arrl.net <mailto:k7ra at arrl.net>.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL 
Technical Information Service web page at 
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the 
numbers used in this bulletin, 
seehttp://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past 
propagation bulletins is at 
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good 
information and tutorials on propagation 
athttp://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve  overseas 
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins 
are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 4 through 10 were 34, 29, 43, 34, 36, 35, 
and 55, with a mean of 33.1. 10.7 cm flux was 79.2, 83, 88.6,  85, 83.7, 
84.1 and 85.6 with a mean of 84.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 
2, 1, 1, 3, 3 and 4 with a mean of 2.4. Estimated  mid-latitude A 
indices were 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1 and 3 with a mean of  1.7.
NNNN
/EX


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