[South Florida DX Association] ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003

ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 22, 2010
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

A steady stream of sunspot activity continues to dot the Sun.  We had
just one day with a daily sunspot number of zero this week, January 19
(Tuesday) when sunspot group 1040 moved over the horizon. But the next
day old sunspot group 1039 re-emerged as 1041, and it now graces the
Sun's southeast (lower left, relative to our view from Earth)
quadrant.  In fact, now that we have a view of most of the Sun (87.35%
as of 2359z today, because of advanced orbiting instruments) it
appears that the sunspot group that just left is nearly antipodal to
the current visible spot, just exiting the Sun's northwest quadrant.
If they stay strong, when the current one leaves, the other should
return.

The current prediction from USAF/NOAA has the solar flux rising from
Friday, January 22 through Tuesday, January 26, at 84, 85, 85, 86 and
87.  Barring any unforeseen flares, planetary A index is seen as
steady and quiet at five.  Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet
geomagnetic conditions January 22-23, quite to unsettled
January 24, and quiet again January 25-28.

A Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) occurred on Wednesday after a
solar flare.  The IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) between Earth
and the Sun was pointing south.  When it points north, the Earth is
less vulnerable.  You can see a detailed graph of the latest
orientation of the IMF at http://www.spaceweatherlive.com.  See the
graph labeled "Direction of the IMF."  It took me a while to figure
out what the Y axis was for.  I expected it to represent time, but it
seemed to show "meters."  Then I realized it was minutes, and this
record covers the previous two hours.  When that graph goes above
zero, the Earth is protected from the effects of solar flares. Thanks
to Beth Katz of the Space Weather Discussion Forum at
http://www.spacew.com for that resource.

A SID will often cause a complete HF radio blackout, the duration
varying with the intensity of the energy from the flare as it (the
energy, not the flare!) reaches Earth.

You can monitor SID events yourself with homemade equipment shown on a
Stanford University web site at,
http://solar-center.stanford.edu/SID/sidmonitor/.  Note the useful
links provided, which lead to other pages and links, many quite
useful.  Check out http://sidmonitors.blogspot.com/ and
http://solar-center.stanford.edu/SID/map/.  Thanks to
http://www.spaceweather.com for this tip.

Kermit Lehman, AB1J of Waltham, Massachusetts commented on last week's
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002: "I have stayed on the air,
refusing to let the good be the enemy of the bad, but it hasn't been
easy.  Since every cloud is reputed to have a silver lining, even this
valley of the shadow of the dearth of Sun spots has been
good for me in some ways.  I was forced to figure out how to get on 40
and 80 on a postage stamp-sized piece of real estate and as a result
worked 5BDXCC, something I would never have tried if there had been
any propagation at all on 15, 12 and 10."

Thanks, Kermit!

Check out K9LA's Propagation column in the current issue of
WorldRadio, available free online at,
http://www.cq-amateur-radio.com/.  Click on the WorldRadio Online
logo on the left side, and see the Propagation column on pages 25-26.
To find the obscure unnamed article he refers to under "Is there DXing
on 4 MHz?," just enter a part of any phrase he quotes into your
favorite web search engine.  When I did it, I got a couple of hits,
but when I clicked the link for "repeat the search with omitted
results included" I saw many more.  Apparently that article was
circulated widely, starting around ten years ago.

In the current February issue of QST in the Up Front section is a
piece about ham radio in the Linux Journal.  What the short item
doesn't mention and isn't in the Linux Journal is the fact that the
founder and publisher is a ham, Phil Hughes, WA6SWR. Phil generously
gave me my first internet access via his company back in the 1980s,
years before the worldwide web.

There is a letter in the same issue of QST from KD4SKB telling about
finding some QSL cards from his Novice days back in 1971.  He checked
on various callsign sites on the internet, and found that three were
from hams who are still licensed, and had email addresses.  He
attempted contact, and got a response from one who  agreed to meet him
on 40 meters for a reunion QSO.  He mentioned that the other fellow
was 14 years old when they made contact 38 years earlier.

That reminded me of 1966, when I was 14, and brought my receiver and
DX-20 CW transmitter with me on a Summer visit to my grandparents in
Topeka, Kansas.  I strung up a wire antenna and did a little
operating, and ended up exchanging cards with a fellow in Illinois,
about 300 miles away after a QSO on the 40 meter Novice band.

When I returned to Seattle, after the QSL cards we began exchanging
letters.  He was two years older than me, and for a couple of years as
we passed through those fast-changing stages of adolescence, we
exchanged many letters, sharing the good and the bad, the terrors and
the triumphs of boyhood in the late 1960s.  As I recall, we
shared many things that we likely might not even tell our closest
friends in our home communities.  We talked about radio, girls,
popular music, girls, school and, did I mention girls?

I had a great memory for events, people and minutia for many years,
but now in my fifties it is fading.  For a number of years I have
tried to recall his name or callsign so I could look him up and see if
he were still a ham.  But I couldn't find the logbook from that
summer, and had misplaced his QSL long ago.  But I waited, knowing
that at some time in the future I would recall or see something that
jogged my memory.

Finally last spring it happened.  I was looking through the June 2009
QST, and there he was, Ed Clink, still WA9PFB, still in New Berlin,
Illinois, in the Silent Keys listing.  I finally remembered, but a
little late.  According to FCC records he had renewed his license just
three years earlier, and still had his General Class ticket.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this
bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email.

Sunspot numbers for January 14 through 20 were 34, 26, 24, 16, 14, 0,
and 16 with a mean of 18.6. 10.7 cm flux was 89.9, 85.3, 84.2, 82.6,
81.5, 84.2, and 81.7 with a mean of 84.2. Estimated planetary A
indices were 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1 and 14 with a mean of 3.9. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2 and 6 with a mean of 2.4.
NNNN
/EX