[South Florida DX Association] Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

Sixteen consecutive days with no visible sunspots, and still counting.  This 
is the way it is at solar cycle minimum.  Enjoy it now, because there will 
be a time in the future when solar winds are constant and the geomagnetic 
field active, and although we will have many sunspots, you may think back 
fondly on this time.  Particularly for operators at high latitudes, 
geomagnetic instability is a problem.  Just talk to anyone who lives in 
Alaska, the Klondike, Northwest Territories or Nunavut.  They'll tell you 
about other parts of the sunspot cycle, when they tune 20 meters for weeks 
on end without hearing a signal.  Quiet conditions this weekend will be good 
for the CQ World Wide 160-Meter CW Contest.

We've been tracking a 3-month smoothed sunspot number, and if January ends 
next week with still no sunspots, the three month run centered on December 
will still have an average above the previous three months, making October 
the minimum.  We'll know for sure next week, but the three month moving 
averages centered on June through December should be 18.7, 15.4, 10.2, 5.4, 
3, 6.9 and 7.7.  If the no-sunspot days continue through the end of January, 
then the sum of all sunspot numbers for November, December and January will 
be 707,  and dividing that by the total number of days for the three months 
(92) yields a result of approximately 7.68478, or 7.7, the average centered 
on December 2007.

The US Air Force and NOAA predict solar flux to continue around 70 through 
the end of this month, 75 for February 1, and 80 for February 2-3.  Perhaps 
we'll see sunspots return for that first week in February.  They also 
predict a quiet planetary A index of 5 through the end of this month, and 
then 15, 12, 10, 10 and 5 for February 1-5.  Geophysical Institute Prague 
sees quiet conditions January 25-30 and quiet to unsettled for January 31.

Among several messages this week about new vs. old cycle sunspots was one 
from Neal Enault, WA6OCP of Sunnyvale, California.  He pointed out that an 
old article from NASA 18 months ago gives a good explanation of the magnetic 
orientation of sunspots. You can read about it at, 
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/15aug_backwards.htm.  Note
that southern hemisphere sunspots have opposite polarity from northern 
hemisphere spots, and the polarity refers to the orientation of the spots, 
from east to west.  This is presented clearly toward the bottom of the page 
under, "More to the Story."

Think of those solar disk images as a mirror image of earth, so west is on 
the right side, and east on the left, opposite of how we look at a map on 
earth.  Picture it as though you are lying in the grass on a warm day, with 
your head toward the north and feet pointed south and your arms stretched 
out to each side.  As you lie there with your eyes closed enjoying the 
warmth (don't look at the Sun!) your right arm points west and your left arm 
points east.  If you raise your right (west) arm and point toward the Sun's 
right edge, you are pointing at the Sun's western limb.

As the Sun rotates, the spots travel from east to west, left to right, and 
Cycle 23 spots in the northern hemisphere of the Sun have north polarity to 
the right, and south polarity to the right in the southern hemisphere. 
Cycle 24 spots are just the opposite.

You can observe the difference in the image of spots by comparing the 
southern hemisphere spots in the article linked above, to northern 
hemisphere spots in this very recent article on the web at, 
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm.

Neal says a good source of images to observe spot polarity is from SOHO at, 
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_mag/512/. As Neal points 
out, this works as long as there are spots to observe!  Note you can click 
on the image to get a much closer view. Remember that the dark side of the 
spot means south polarity, and white means north.  So in the southern 
hemisphere look for Cycle 24 spots to have north, or white on the right 
side, and white on the left in the northern hemisphere.  Also remember that 
we are mixing
directions and polarity in this text.  North polarity doesn't refer to the 
north part of the image!

Many emails this week referred to the 40 meter moonbounce experiment at 
HAARP, the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program in Alaska.  The 
subject of many wild conspiracy theories in the 1990s (about weather 
control, mind control, or Tesla's secret death-ray), last week it was used 
to beam powerful 40 meter signals at the Moon, and the public was invited to 
listen for echoes.  Information on the experiment is at, 
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/mbann.html. Although HAARP is open to the 
public and performs no classified research, you can see some of the wild 
claims about its alleged secret agenda by just doing a web search on HAARP. 
This isn't Area 51, after all, and the public is welcome.  Although I would 
never reference them as a source, Wikipedia gives a nice rundown on the 
project at, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAARP.  If your collection of QST 
Magazine includes the September 1996 issue, check page 33 for an article 
titled "The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program," by K3NS.

Shelby Ennis, W8WN of Elizabethtown, Kentucky sent in a nice report about 
the strong echoes he received from HAARP via the Moon, and included a video 
link at http://youtube.com/watch?v=L5E2ntIxAsc of K7AGE receiving the 
echoes.  The echoes seem weak at the beginning of the program, but later 
become quite dramatic.

Shelby, by the way, works moonbounce on 2 meters, and has been using meteor 
scatter since 1955.  At http://www.qrz.com/w8wn you can see Shelby seated at 
his operating position, appropriately attired in a nice tuxedo.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the 
author at, k7ra at arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical 
Information Service web page at, 
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.  For a detailed explanation 
of the numbers used in this bulletin see, 
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html.  An archive of past propagation 
bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts 
between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, 
http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for January 17 through 23 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a 
mean of 0.  10.7 cm flux was 73.7, 71.1, 70.8, 70.2, 71.6, 70.3, and 70.6 
with a mean of 71.2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 10, 9, 6, 4, 2 
and 3 with a mean of 6.3.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 10, 6, 
4, 3, 2 and 3, with a mean of 5.
NNNN
/EX