[South Florida DX Association] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

SB PROP ARL ARLP010
> ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> A big news story this week (big to us, anyway) generated more email
> than I've ever received.  If you were one of the kind folks who sent
> in an alert about a new prediction for sunspot cycle 24, I'm sorry
> that I couldn't get back to everyone.
> 
> A new computer model of solar dynamics produced by scientists at the
> National Center for Atmospheric Research predicts the next solar
> cycle to begin a bit later than earlier believed, but to rise much
> higher, perhaps 30-50% higher than the current solar cycle just
> ending.  Their model claims to predict cycles 16-23 using earlier
> data with 97% accuracy.  I would love to see some dissenting
> scientific opinion, but of course in my heart I long for another
> cycle 19 of the 1950s, one that I missed.  50% higher would just
> about get us there!
> 
> You can read about the new prediction model at these sites: 
> http://www.newscientistspace.com/article.ns?id=dn8814 
> http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=19189  
> http://www.universetoday.com/am/publish/30_50_solar_cycle.html  
> http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/261963_solar07.html  
> http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=19190  
> http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/03/07/solar.storm.ap/index.html  
> http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=105844.  
> An article with a photo of Dr. Dikpati and members of her team is
> here: http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml.
> 
> Also check out this article from NASA, which claims that the solar
> minimum is already here, or at least the beginning of it:
> http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/06mar_solarminimum.htm.
> 
> Regarding current propagation, solar activity is still low, with
> many days of zero sunspots recently, and even more ahead.  The
> vernal equinox is only a couple of weeks away.  This is a good time
> for HF propagation, even with few sunspots, as the southern and
> northern hemispheres are equally bathed in the sun's radiation.  
> Friday, March 10 could have unsettled to active geomagnetic
> conditions, with unsettled conditions on Saturday, quiet to
> unsettled on Sunday, and quiet on Monday, March 13.
> 
> Bob Poortinga, K9SQL of Bloomington, Indiana wrote in about his
> experience on 15 meters last week in the ARRL International DX SSB
> Contest.  He ran 100 watts into a wire antenna (he didn't say if it
> was a dipole, a rhombic, or a Sterba curtain, but let's assume it
> was a simple antenna) and worked 44 countries.  Bob wrote:
> ''Highlights included 2 JAs (heard 2 others), Tonga, Ascension
> Island, and 3 KH6s.  Also heard, but did not work, VK6NS and a ZL1
> station.  Had lots of QSOs to South America, mostly Argentina and
> Brazil.  The Pacific opening lasted about two hours, occurring about
> 2130-2330 UTC Sunday.  The 3 KH6s were worked within 15 minutes of
> each other and did not hear again''.
> 
> Bob also likes the BeaconSee software for monitoring NCDXF/IARU
> beacons.  Bob says ''I can't say enough about this program''.  Check
> it out for yourself at http://www.coaa.co.uk/beaconsee.htm.
> 
> Mark Schreiner, NK8Q of Allentown, Pennsylvania wrote in about how
> much fun he is having at the bottom of the cycle running QRP, and
> how great the lower part of the HF spectrum is with so little solar
> activity.  He writes, ''About 1-1/2 hours after local sunrise I heard
> 3D2NB on 40m on 3/3/06 and once I figured out the QSX I worked him
> within a matter of a couple of calls.  I was amazed to hear a
> station at such great distance so late after local sunrise!  I had
> worked a Fiji Islands station who was barely copyable by me (so I
> can't imagine how my signal was for him unless his antenna was
> something special) early last summer at about 5 AM during the peak
> of grayline, just before my local sunrise, but to work this station
> so late after sunrise and with at least an S5 to S7 signal strength
> at my end, I thought was absolutely amazing!
> 
> And finally, Warren Ziegler, K2ORS holds broadcaster Jean Shepard's
> old call.  Warren experiments with longwave transmissions on 137.8
> KHz.  Look at the cool stone tower where he operates his station:
> http://www.w4dex.com/wd2xgj.htm.
> 
> Thanks again to the multitude of hams who wrote in about the story
> on the next solar cycle, including AI2Q, KB9X, W9DGI, K5SWW, KA7OVQ,
> WF0P, K9SQL, K2ORS, N5FPW, W5TB, NG1I, K0YQ, W8XKW, NK8Q, WD4DUG,
> W6AH, K0HZI, AD5FD, W8UI, KC5PJW, K7VV, N7NVP, K0AMZ, N0AX and many
> others.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
> of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
> Information Service propagation page at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.  An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for March 2 through March 8 were 0, 0, 13, 28, 27,
> 25 and 24 with a mean of 16.7. 10.7 cm flux was 76.1, 75.5, 75,
> 74.2, 73.6, 74.4, and 72.4, with a mean of 74.5.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 2, 8, 12 and 4 with a mean of 5.3.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 1, 1, 8, 6 and 3, with a
> mean of 3.6.
> NNNN
> /EX
>