[South Florida DX Association] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

ZCZC AP48
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  November 18, 2005
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP048
> ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Just last week we saw no sunspots. Then on November 13 we saw
> sunspot 822 peek around the eastern side of the visible solar disk.
> By November 15 we could see that it is a big one. Today, November
> 18, the spot should be squarely facing earth. The daily sunspot
> number rose from 26 on Monday, November 14, to 32, 58 and 62 on
> November 17.
> 
> Daily solar flux is based on the 2.8 GHz energy received from the
> sun at an observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, Canada at
> local noon, which is 2000z. The observatory has a parabolic dish
> antenna aimed at the sun, and they produce three readings per day at
> 1800, 2000 and 2200z, although the 2000z measurement is the only
> number recorded as the official daily solar flux. This number is
> related to the area and number of sunspots facing earth, but does
> not track it precisely. But it is more objective than counting
> sunspots and measuring their area, which is how the daily sunspot
> number is derived, and it has the advantage of being able to take
> readings on overcast days.
> 
> For the past two days, November 16 and 17, the three daily readings
> were 93.2, 94, 96, 97.1, 100.5 and 103.2. The 94 and 100.5 readings
> taken at local noon each day were the official solar flux numbers
> for those days. You can see the trend is up. Currently as this is
> written early Friday, November 18, the interplanetary magnetic field
> is pointing south, which means the earth is vulnerable to any flares
> from sunspot 822.
> 
> This weekend is ARRL SSB Sweepstakes Contest. Sunspot numbers and
> solar flux are both expected to remain relatively high, with solar
> flux remaining around 100 for the next week. Geomagnetic activity is
> expected to remain low over the weekend, with the planetary A index
> for November 18-21 at 5, 5, 7 and 12. Geophysical Institute Prague
> predicts quiet conditions on November 24, quiet to unsettled
> November 20, 22 and 23, and unsettled November 18, 19 and 21.
> 
> Tom Coates, N3IJ wrote to ask about getting the WWV geo-alert
> messages via the internet. The alerts are transmitted at 18 minutes
> after each hour, and you can also read the latest copy at
> http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/wwv.txt. If you want it via
> telephone, call 303-497-3235. The broadcasts are updated every three
> hours, after 0000z, 0300z, 0600z, 0900z and so on.
> 
> Osten Magnusson, SM5DQC sent in the observation that the lower the
> solar flux, the better 160 meters seems to be. On November 11 he
> mentioned that "Around October 25 the 160 meter band was as good as
> it can be, now it's down again as sunspots have increased. Maybe
> it's not scientific, but this is my experience!"
> 
> We received several interesting and informative emails concerning 10
> meters. 10 meters seems to be open over various paths quite often,
> although with the solar activity lower many people are not showing
> up and operating. Those that do operate sometimes observe
> interesting propagation.
> 
> Joe Murray, K0VTY of Ithaca, Nebraska said he heard LU6GB working
> NL7Z on 28.49 MHz at 2012z on November 6. When Joe worked LU6GB,
> signals were S9 both ways for 30-40 minutes. Of course, it helps
> that Joe runs a 7 element homebrew monoband Yagi that he built over
> 40 years ago. He had it az-el mounted in 1965 with stacked 11
> element 2 meter Yagis for satellite work, back when only the 2 and
> 10 meter bands were used for OSCAR. On November 13 Joe wrote again
> to say that from 1805-1820z that day he worked Brazil and Chile on
> 10 meters with solid signals.
> 
> Joe Living, W3GW/KH6 lives on Maui, and he listens to 10 meters
> every Saturday. He hears many mainland U.S. stations that cannot
> hear each other, and often copies beacon stations. On November 12 at
> 1900z he heard the K5AB beacon in Texas at S5. On September 5 he
> worked George, KA9YCB in Southern Illinois. George was using a tiny
> indoor magnetic loop antenna. On November 13 Joe worked K7LEK in
> Nevada on 28.4 MHz, then KD6AXR in Fullerton, California broke in,
> and of course he and K7LEK could not hear each other. Joe mentioned
> that he would like to monitor 28.31 MHz every Saturday, SSB or CW,
> for readers of this bulletin wishing to check the 10 meter path to
> Maui.
> 
> Most interesting this week was an email from Martin McCormick,
> WB5AGZ of Stillwater, Oklahoma. Martin was amazed on the morning of
> November 14 at 0200 CST local time (0800z) to record the KQ2H
> repeater system in New York on 29.62 MHz FM. The repeater faded out,
> then began coming in again around 0530 local time with New York
> drive time traffic, probably from its 2 meter link. By 0600 CST it
> was full-quieting. He tuned around the rest of 10 meters and the 11
> meter band, and heard no other activity, except the tail-end of an
> FM signal briefly on 29.64 MHz. Note that all this activity was over
> night, for most of the time dark at both ends of the path.
> 
> I contacted Alex Muzyka, KQ2H who said the 10 meter transmitter is
> running 1300 watts, and the antenna is a vertical at 300 feet on a
> tower in Wurtsboro, New York, about 1950 feet above mean sea level.
> 
> Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA commented that this propagation could be
> due to F2 region ionization from geomagnetic field activity. Martin
> thought perhaps this was very early winter E-skip.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
> of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
> Information Service propagation page at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past
> bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16 were 0, 0, 11, 16, 26, 32
> and 58 with a mean of 20.4. 10.7 cm flux was 77.9, 78.6, 83.1, 87.8,
> 92.4, 100, and 94, with a mean of 87.7. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 2, 5, 10, 14, 10, 4 and 3 with a mean of 6.9. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 7, 12, 7, 5 and 1, with a mean of
> 5.1.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
>