[South Florida DX Association] ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

 SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
> ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP01
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  January 7, 2005
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP001
> ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Happy New Year! Not much to say about solar numbers or propagation
> this week compared to last, except that Thursday, January 6 had
> wonderfully quiet geomagnetic numbers. Both mid-latitude and the
> planetary A index were 4, and for most of the three-hour periods the
> K index was 0 or 1.
> 
> Of course, sunspot numbers will continue their decline for the next
> couple of years, but at least we can count on better conditions for
> the near term as the hours of daylight lengthen.
> 
> Because the year is now 2005, we can tally up numbers for the
> previous year and compare them with the past to try to get a feeling
> for Cycle 23's decline. These quarterly and yearly averages are made
> from the daily sunspot and solar flux data reported at the end of
> each bulletin.
> 
> From the third quarter of 2003 through the fourth quarter of 2004,
> average daily sunspot numbers were 110.2, 99.2, 72.9, 71.3, 69.3,
> and 61. The average daily solar flux for the same period was 120.8,
> 137.4, 111.1, 99.5, 111 and 104.8.
> 
> Both the quarterly sunspot numbers and flux values have declined
> steadily, although there are some variations, such as solar flux in
> the fourth quarter of 2004 being higher than it was in the second
> quarter.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers for the years 2000 through 2004 were
> 173, 170.3, 176.6, 109.2 and 68.6. Average daily solar flux for the
> same five years was 179.6, 181.6, 179.5, 129.2 and 106.6. We can see
> the steady decline with each calendar year, and this should continue
> through the end of next year, 2006.
> 
> Now for conditions over the short term, a week ago it looked like
> solar flux should stay above 100 over the following 10-12 days. Now
> the last of sunspot 715 is disappearing around the edge of the sun,
> and it looks like solar flux should stay around 85 with sunspot
> numbers below 40 over the next week.
> 
> Saturday, January 8 could see some unsettled to active geomagnetic
> conditions, and January 13 could see unsettled conditions as well.
> Quiet days are expected January 10-11.
> 
> Alan Beck, VY2WU from Prince Edward Island wrote in response to last
> week's mention of 60 meters. He said in Northern Canada 60 meters is
> used for "bush radio," and he told a story about Inuit hunters in
> Nunavut using 5.2 MHz SSB at 10 watts to call home from the ice.
> 
> Barry Roseman, W0LHK of Stilwell, Kansas wrote to say he was on 60
> meters the first day it opened for U.S. hams. Barry says only four
> stations have worked all states on 60 meters: K7NN, N1UU, K4AVC, and
> himself, W0LHK. His best DX was G0HNW in Yorkshire. Barry has used
> various dipole antennas and a quarter-wave vertical, and says he
> often works mobile stations.
> 
> If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at,
> k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information
> Service propagation page at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 30 through January 5 were 34, 60, 51,
> 52, 43, 30 and 15 with a mean of 40.7. 10.7 cm flux was 100, 98.5,
> 98.9, 100, 94.2, 88 and 88, with a mean of 95.4. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 15, 8, 15, 33, 22, 23 and 21 with a mean of 19.6.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 5, 10, 20, 14, 16 and 11,
> with a mean of 12.6.
> NNNN
> /EX
>