[South Florida DX Association] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

ZCZC AP51
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 2, 2005
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Daily sunspot and solar flux averages over the past week were down,
> and the geomagnetic indices were up. Average daily sunspot numbers
> were down nearly 15 points to 33.7, and average daily solar flux
> declined nearly 13 points to 84.2.
> 
> Currently sunspot and solar flux numbers are rising due to sunspot
> 826, which is growing rapidly and moving toward the center of the
> solar disk, giving it maximum influence here on Earth. It also
> could be a source of flares, which would not be good for the ARRL
> 160 Meter CW Contest this weekend. Predicted solar flux for today
> (Friday) through Monday December 5 is 100, 105, 105 and 105.
> The predicted planetary A index for the same days is 15, 12, 8 and 5,
> although those numbers will be higher if sunspot 826 becomes
> especially active.
> 
> Back in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP048 (see
> http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2005-arlp048.html) there was a report
> of WB5AGZ in Stillwater, Oklahoma picking up a 10 meter repeater
> from New York (KQ2H) during the middle of the night and into early
> morning. We now have another similar report, also from Oklahoma.
> Stan Stephens, WA6SKD of Midwest City, Oklahoma wrote in with this
> narrative:
> 
> "I would like to confirm Martin McCormick's (WB5AGZ) observations
> from Stillwater, Oklahoma on late night 10 meter FM signals from
> KQ2H on 29.620 MHZ. I am in Midwest City, Oklahoma (near OKC). I
> monitor the 10 meter FM band always looking for a contact or two,
> since I am a night owl. I have observed KQ2H many times after
> midnight, almost too numerous to keep track. These openings have not
> just been this month, but also spring and summer. What I hear does
> sound like a link with stations having no idea they are being copied
> 59+ in Oklahoma."
> 
> He continues, "Now for the good part, these late night signals are
> not limited to KQ2H. I have also noted signals from the southern
> U.S. and Midwest with an occasional California 10 FM repeater. Also,
> like Martin, I notice no other signals on 10M, and 12M, 15M, and 17M
> also with no signals. Trying to raise these repeaters can be
> difficult on my Azden PCS 2800 (10 watts and Ringo), but when I do
> get a response from the machine no one is home!"
> 
> Stan goes on to say, "In general I find the 10 meter FM band is open
> a lot more than it is given credit for, I am not sure what
> conditions allow this but no complaints on this end. It is cool
> making a 10 meter FM contact with a distant station at 0300 in the
> morning. I have been on 10M FM with my Azden for 23 years, my log
> books really show varied conditions on 10M FM. Although some years
> have been better than others, this includes sunspot cycle minimums."
> 
> This is very interesting, and shows us that 10 meters may be open
> more often than we think, even in the middle of the night when there
> shouldn't be any conventional propagation. Remember that the ARRL
> 10 Meter Contest is coming up next weekend, December 9-11.
> 
> November ended on Wednesday, so let's look at the monthly averages
> for solar flux and sunspot numbers.
> 
> The average daily sunspot numbers for the months September 2004
> through November 2005 were 50, 77.9, 70.5, 34.7, 52, 45.4, 41, 41.5,
> 65.4, 59.8, 68.7, 65.6, 39.2, 13 and 32.2. Average daily solar flux
> for the same months was 103, 106, 113.7, 95, 102.3, 97.2, 89.9,
> 85.9, 99.5, 93.7, 96.5, 92.4, 91.9, 76.6 and 86.3.
> 
> It looks like activity bounced back a bit in November, but look for
> the general trend to be down until the sunspot minimum, which should
> be about a year from now, or maybe a little longer.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
> of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
> Information Service propagation page at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past
> bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 30, 39, 30, 26, 27,
> 27 and 57 with a mean of 33.7. 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 79.9, 80.8,
> 80.7, 81.9, 84.7, and 94.7, with a mean of 84.2. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 9, 10, 5, 2, 9, 5 and 10 with a mean of 7.1.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 3, 2, 6, 6 and 9, with a
> mean of 5.7.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>