[South Florida DX Association] ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

[Richard M. Gillingham]

Talk about a gloomy outlook.  (sigh)

Gil, W1RG

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Bill Marx" <bmarx at bellsouth.net>
To: "aSFDXA" <SFDXA at mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Saturday, April 02, 2005 8:47 AM
Subject: [South Florida DX Association] ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP ARL ARLP013
>> ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA
>> 
>> We saw a decline this week in average daily sunspot numbers and
>> solar flux. Average daily sunspot numbers were down over 10 points
>> to 34.1 when compared to the previous week, and average daily solar
>> flux declined almost 12 points to 80.2.
>> 
>> The short term prediction shows solar flux values rising slowly over
>> the next week, reaching 100 around April 8. The planetary A index
>> should rise over the next few days. The predicted planetary A index
>> for April 2-5 is 15, 25, 35 and 20.
>> 
>> Just completed is the first quarter of 2005. Now is a good time to
>> take some running averages of sunspot numbers and solar flux,
>> comparing this quarter to previous periods.
>> 
>> From the first quarter of 2003 through the first quarter of 2005,
>> the average daily sunspot numbers were 120.3, 107.3, 110.2, 99.2,
>> 72.9, 71.3, 69.3, 61 and 46.1.
>> 
>> The average daily solar flux for the same period was 134.3, 124.2,
>> 120.8, 137.4, 111.1, 99.5, 111, 104.8 and 96.4.
>> 
>> We see clearly that cycle 23 continues the fall toward solar
>> minimum, which is currently forecast roughly around October 2006 to
>> April 2007. Fortunately, the rise of a solar cycle is much more
>> rapid than its decline. But when comparing current smoothed sunspot
>> numbers to the predicted numbers once the next cycle turns up, the
>> predicted value for April 2005 is just slightly above the predicted
>> value for December 2007. So we shouldn't expect conditions to
>> improve beyond what we've had recently until early 2008, or a little
>> less than three years from now. Current sunspot numbers are lower
>> than they've been since 1997. The peak of the next cycle will
>> probably occur in 2010.
>> 
>> March 1965 was 40 years ago. I was still twelve years old, and when
>> riding the school bus home one day in that March, I saw that my mom
>> had hung her red sweater in the window. That was my signal. I
>> couldn't wait for the bus to drop me off so I could race back up the
>> hill. I ran into the house, grabbed the envelope from the FCC off
>> the dining room table, and ripped it open. Inside, there was my new
>> Novice call, WN7CSK. Hard to believe it's been 40 years.
>> 
>> If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at,
>> k7ra at arrl.net.
>> 
>> For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
>> of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
>> Information Service propagation page at,
>> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
>> 
>> Sunspot numbers for March 24 through 30 were 57, 65, 41, 35, 15, 15
>> and 11 with a mean of 34.1. 10.7 cm flux was 87.1, 82.1, 77.7, 78.4,
>> 79.7, 78.8 and 77.6, with a mean of 80.2. Estimated planetary A
>> indices were 6, 18, 16, 13, 4, 5 and 9 with a mean of 10.1.
>> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 15, 12, 8, 2, 3 and 6, with
>> a mean of 7.1.
>> NNNN
>> /EX
>> 
>> 
> 
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