[South Florida DX Association] ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP036
> ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP36
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36  ARLP036
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  September 3, 2004
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP036
> ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Thanks so much to Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA who did a wonderful job
> filling in and writing the bulletin last week. It was an excellent
> piece, and you can read it in the archives of all our propagation
> bulletins on the ARRL web site at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers and solar flux values declined this week compared to
> last. The average daily sunspot number dropped by nearly 50 to 27.7
> and the average daily solar flux was down over 23 points.
> Geomagnetic activity increased on August 30 and 31. A moderate solar
> wind stream sparked this.
> 
> Returning sunspot 649 has begun a transit across the solar surface.
> It has shrunk in size, but, along with returning sunspot 656, is
> expected to increase sunspot numbers and solar flux over the near
> term.
> 
> Solar flux is rising, and the predicted values for Friday through
> Monday, September 3-6 are 100, 105, 110 and 115. Solar flux is
> expected to peak around 130 on September 9. The planetary A index
> predicted over September 3-6 is 15, 10, 10, and 10. The planetary A
> index may rise higher around September 5 due to a solar wind stream
> from a coronal hole, possibly producing unsettled to active
> geomagnetic conditions.
> 
> The rising flux and sunspot numbers this weekend should be good news
> for the All Asian DX Phone Contest this weekend, especially if
> geomagnetic activity is quiet.
> 
> The days are getting shorter as the earth moves toward the Autumnal
> Equinox on September 22. The long days in the far northern latitudes
> are receding, so when there is geomagnetic activity, auroras are
> more visible up north at nighttime. The start of Fall is a great
> time for HF propagation, even past the peak of the cycle.
> 
> Just as we did a month ago, we should now look at the latest monthly
> averages for daily sunspot numbers and solar flux, and compare them
> with data from the past year. August's average daily sunspot number
> was 69.6, and the average daily solar flux was 110. The monthly
> averages show the steady decline of solar cycle 23.
> 
> The monthly average of daily sunspot numbers, October 2003 through
> August 2004 were 118.9, 103.0, 75.7, 62.3, 75.6, 81.0, 59.3, 77.3,
> 77.0, 87.8 and 69.6.
> 
> The monthly averages of solar flux for the same period were 155.5,
> 140.8, 116.1, 114.1, 107.0, 112.1, 101.2, 99.8, 97.4, 119.8 and
> 110.0.
> 
> For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information
> Service propagation page at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 26 through September 1 were 44, 33, 28,
> 36, 30, 11 and 12 with a mean of 27.7. 10.7 cm flux was 97.5, 90.5,
> 87.2, 86.1, 89.9, 88.1 and 89.9, with a mean of 89.9. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 7, 8, 12, 8, 34, 28 and 9, with a mean of
> 15.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 4, 6, 5, 27, 14 and
> 5, with a mean of 9.3.
> NNNN
> /EX
>