[South Florida DX Association] HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 32

[Bill Marx]

From: <k4pg at adelphia.net>

> 000
> WTNT41 KNHC 012052
> TCDAT1
> HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
> NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
> 5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
>  
> AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES
> AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
> WARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE
> INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
> FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
> DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT
> MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS
> DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX
> REPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE
> PROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
> U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
>  
> DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON
> BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII
> ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE
> SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
> WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE.
>  
> FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13
> KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST
> THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE
> RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL
> CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD
> EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
> VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
> THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
> UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
> OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
> MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
> FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
> THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
> ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE
> FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.
>  
> FORECASTER AVILA
>  
> FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
>  
> INITIAL      01/2100Z 22.0N  71.0W   120 KT
>  12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.1N  73.0W   125 KT
>  24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.3N  74.9W   125 KT
>  36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.4N  76.7W   125 KT
>  48HR VT     03/1800Z 26.5N  78.5W   125 KT
>  72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.0N  80.5W   115 KT
>  96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
> 120HR VT     06/1800Z 32.5N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND