[South Florida DX Association] ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

[bmarx at bellsouth.net]

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
> ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspot activity has been in the doldrums, expected for this stage
> of the declining solar cycle. Average daily solar flux and sunspot
> numbers hardly changed from last week to this week. Now both numbers
> are rising modestly due to quickly expanding sunspot 606, now
> squarely aimed at earth.
> 
> There is also some good news from the sun's far side, where
> helioseismic holography detects another sizable sunspot group. Both
> sunspot and solar flux numbers are now over 100. The lowest recent
> sunspot count was 30 on May 6, and solar flux went down to 85 the
> following day.
> 
> Solar flux values should rise over this weekend, with the Friday
> through Monday (May 14-17) solar flux predicted at 105, 110, 115 and
> 115. Solar flux should stay around 115 through May 20. The predicted
> planetary A index indicates unsettled conditions for Saturday, May
> 15, with the Friday through Monday planetary A index predicted at
> 12, 15, 12 and 8.
> 
> A new issue of the NOAA Space Environment Center Preliminary Report
> and Forecast has some solar cycle predictions on pages 12-13. The
> forecast for the bottom of the cycle still looks to be around the
> end of 2006 or early 2007. You can read about it at,
> http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1497.pdf. Since this is in PDF
> format, you will need Acrobat Reader to view it.
> 
> For the higher HF bands, declining sunspots mean fewer or no
> openings on 15, 12 and 10 meters, and probably a greater reliance on
> 20 or 17 meters for worldwide propagation during daylight hours.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for May 6 through 12 were 30, 34, 37, 57, 55, 46 and
> 83 with a mean of 48.9. 10.7 cm flux was 86.4, 85.2, 87.2, 93.2, 93,
> 90.2 and 98.8, with a mean of 90.6. Estimated planetary A indices
> were 8, 17, 10, 6, 7, 10 and 11, with a mean of 9.9.  Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 10, 13, 7, 3, 5, 8 and 9, with a mean of
> 7.9.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
>