[South Florida DX Association] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

ZCZC AP27
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 2, 2004
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP027
> ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Conditions were good for Field Day last weekend.  There wasn't much
> of a sunspot count, but there weren't any solar storms either.  I
> operated mobile on 20 and 15 meters.  I didn't hear much on 15 in
> Seattle, especially on Sunday.  Last week's bulletin suggested
> possibly unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the weekend, but
> fortunately that was delayed until after Field Day.
> 
> A solar wind stream caused geomagnetic indices to begin rising late
> Monday UTC (June 28), which is late afternoon here on the West
> Coast.  Mid-latitudes weren't affected very much, but the planetary
> K index rose to 4.  The planetary A index on Tuesday, June 29 was
> 20, and the Alaskan College A index (from Fairbanks) was 29.
> 
> Sunspot numbers have been dropping.  Average daily sunspot numbers
> over the past week were over 55 points below the week before, down
> to 60.9.  Average daily solar flux dropped by nearly 19 points.  For
> the next week the daily solar flux numbers look to stay about the
> same, between 80 and 85, not turning up again until around July 9.
> Sunspot numbers and solar flux are expected to peak for the short
> term between July 16-19.  Geomagnetic indices should be stable, with
> possible unsettled conditions around July 6.
> 
> June 30 was the end of the second quarter for 2004.  Time now to
> take a look at quarterly averages for solar flux and sunspot
> numbers, to help us discern the decline of the current cycle.
> 
> The average daily sunspot number for April 1 through June 30 2004
> was 71.3, and average solar flux was 99.5.  Both indicators are down
> since the first quarter of 2004.
> 
> From the third quarter of 2002 through the second quarter of 2004,
> the average daily sunspot numbers were 193.5, 152.7, 120.3, 107.3,
> 110.2, 99.2, 72.9 and 71.3.  The average daily solar flux values for
> the same two years were 178.1, 164.2, 134.3, 124.2, 120.8, 137.4,
> 111.1 and 99.5.  This is another confirmation of cycle 23's slide
> toward solar minimum, currently forecast to occur about two and a
> half years from now.
> 
> For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information
> Service propagation page at
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for June 24 through 30 were 94, 83, 64, 48, 45, 50
> and 42 with a mean of 60.9.  10.7 cm flux was 108.3, 102.9, 98.9,
> 97.2, 89.4, 85.1 and 81.8, with a mean of 94.8.  Estimated planetary
> A indices were 6, 4, 7, 5, 13, 20 and 10, with a mean of 9.3.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3, 8, 4, 11, 15 and 8, with
> a mean of 7.6.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>