[South Florida DX Association] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

 ZCZC AP33
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 13, 2004
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP033
> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Big sunspot 649 rotated back into view this week, and sunspot and
> solar flux numbers are up.  The average daily sunspot number for
> this week (August 5-11) rose over 35 points (from the previous week)
> to 77.9, and average daily solar flux was up over 18 points to
> 106.5.  There were no large geomagnetic events, only some periods of
> unsettled to active conditions.
> 
> Sunspot 649 is currently in the center of the visible solar disk,
> pointed straight toward earth.  It is a possible source of solar
> flares over the next few days.  Solar flux is expected to rise over
> the weekend, peaking below 170 from August 15-17.  The Prague
> Geophysical Institute predicts unsettled geomagnetic conditions for
> August 13, unsettled to active conditions for August 14, and quiet
> to unsettled conditions for August 15-16.
> 
> A solar cycle prediction released from NOAA SESC this week still
> shows the current cycle bottoming out around the end of 2006 and the
> start of 2007.  It shows the lowest sunspot numbers from December
> 2006 to January 2007, and the lowest solar flux values from
> September 2006 through April 2007.
> 
> For the start of the next cycle, the prediction goes out as far as
> December 2007 with a predicted smoothed sunspot number of 21, which
> is around the same value predicted for January-February 2005.  So
> with the cycle declining, their guess is that sunspot activity
> shouldn't return to the level of early 2005 until the end of 2007.
> 
> This suggests that activity won't return to our current levels until
> some time in 2008, although it is important to remember that
> activity in the rising part of the cycle increases more rapidly than
> it declines on the down side of the cycle.
> 
> Thomas Giella, KN4LF, wrote to announce a new email listserver for
> propagation discussions hosted by http://www.contesting.com.  You
> can sign up on the web at,
> http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation, or
> subscribe by sending an email with the word "subscribe" in the
> message body or subject line to, propagation-request at contesting.com.
> 
> Reader David Moore sent the following URL,
> http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=14806, which links to
> an article about research into the injection of solar wind plasma
> into the earth's magnetic field.
> 
> For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information
> Service propagation page at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 5 through 11 were 36, 52, 71, 77, 101, 93
> and 115 with a mean of 77.9.  10.7 cm flux was 88.9, 91, 94.6,
> 104.8, 113.9, 121.4 and 130.8, with a mean of 106.5.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 7, 7, 20, 5, 13, 14 and 13, with a mean of
> 11.3.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 11, 2, 12, 12 and
> 10, with a mean of 7.9.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>