[South Florida DX Association] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-21

[Bill Marx]

KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-21
> http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
>
> Date Format is MM/DD/YY
>
> Published Tuesday 12/14/03 At 2100 UTC
>
> PAST 72 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
>
> Sunspot Groups- #10520 currently contains a beta-gamma twisted magnetic
> field capable of producing large M class solar flares.
>
> Daily Solar Flux Readings- 89 to 84.
>
> The daily solar flux reading of 84 that occurred on the 12/12/03 was the
> lowest since 02/98, which was on the rising side of solar cycle 23.
>
> Daily SEC Sunspot Number- 40 to 35.
>
> Daily X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
>
> X-ray solar flare activity continues quiet but activity will probably
> increase as sunspot group #10520 now contains a beta-gamma twisted magnetic
> field capable of producing large M class solar flares.
>
> Daily Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- A9.7 to A7.5.
>
> Daily Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- None.
>
> Daily Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None.
>
> Recurrent Coronal Hole #071 which became geoeffective beginning on 12/5/03,
> should finally lose it's negative impact on Earth's magnetic field
> On UTC 12/15/03.
>
>  I expect a to see a Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic storm) at times today but
> trailing off to a Kp-4 (active) to Kp-3 (unsettled) for tomorrow. A Kp of
> 0-2 (quiet) will probably occur on days two and three.
>
> We should see a three day period with no geomagnetic storming, then on UTC
> 12/17/03 recurrent Coronal Hole #72 will rotate into geoeffective position.
>
> As CH #068 on 11/22-24/03 it produced a peak Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic
> storm) and an Ap of 52 (major geomagnetic storm).
>
>  The daily Ap index has been at active to major storm levels, with a range
> of 18 to 62.
>
> The daily Kp index has been at unsettled to minor storm levels, with a range
> of 3 to 5.
>
> The daily solar wind speed has ranged between 619 and 860.
>
>
> Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation
> indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
>
> 1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except solar flux for HF.
> 2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is
> best for E layer multi hop.
> 2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
> best for F layer multi hop.
>
> Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a
> "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons
> at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most
> are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A
> better indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7
>
> 3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
> 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
> consecutively is best.
> 5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
> high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
> 6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and
> no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
> 7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively
> for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
> 8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
> 9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
> auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
> when the Kp is above 3.
>
>
> TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON -
>
> #2.) Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption and Refraction-
>
> The aurora ovals "generally" have a negative impact on medium and high
> frequency propagation. If the path over which you are communicating lies
> along or inside one of the Aurora Ovals, you will experience degraded
> propagation in one of several different forms; strong signal absorption,
> brief periods of strong signal enhancement, which is mainly caused by tilts
> in the ionosphere that allow signals to become focused at your location or
> very erratic signal behavior in the form of strong and rapid fading, etc.,
> caused by a variety of effects such as multi-pathing, anomalous and rapid
> variations in absorption, non-great-circle propagation, horizontal or side
> refraction and/or scatter (skewing) due to changes in electron density and
> polarization changes.
>
> When the Aurora Oval zones are contracted and latitudinally-thin coinciding
> with low geomagnetic activity, it is possible for a medium and high
> frequency transmitted signal to propagate through the Aurora Oval zone
> without being heavily absorbed by skirting underneath it.
>
> During periods of very low geomagnetic activity, areas of the Aurora Oval
> zones may only have a latitudinal thickness of approximately 300 miles. But
> radio signals reflected from the E-layer can travel over distances of as
> much as 300 to 1250 miles at heights below the ionosphere for low take-off
> angles of between 10 and 25 degrees. When the geometry is just right, the
> medium and high frequency transmitted signal can literally propagate
> underneath and through the Aurora Oval zones into the polar ionosphere which
> is less disturbed and from the polar ionosphere back into the middle
> latitude ionosphere, without ever coming in contact with the highly
> absorptive Aurora Ionosphere. This type of propagation is not as rare as you
> might think and it can provide unusually stable polar region path openings
> to (TA) Transatlantic and (TP) Transpacific regions. But because the Aurora
> Oval zone expands and contracts constantly, such conditions often do not
> last very long.
>
>
> GLOBAL 72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
>
> I expect a to see a Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic storm) at times today but
> trailing off to a Kp-4 (active) to Kp-3 (unsettled) for tomorrow. A Kp of
> 0-2 (quiet) will probably occur on days two and three.
>
> We should see a three day period with no geomagnetic storming, then on UTC
> 12/17/03 recurrent Coronal Hole #72 will rotate into geoeffective position.
>
> As CH #068 on 11/22-24/03 it produced a peak Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic
> storm) and an Ap of 52 (major geomagnetic storm).
>
>
> GLOBAL LF UNDER 300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
> Daytime- Good
> Nighttime- Poor But Improving Some
>
> GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
>
> Low Latitude- Good
> Mid Latitude- Good
> High Latitude- Fair To Good
>
>
> GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
>
> Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
> conditions on east-west paths.
>
> *Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south
> paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
>
> +Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north
> paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
>
>
> Expect poor to fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
> east-west paths.
>
> +Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south
> paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
>
> *Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
> "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
>
>
> "High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
> (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
> approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
>
> "High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
> (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
> approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
>
>
> "Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
> (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
> approximately 3200 miles should be good.
>
> "Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
> (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
> approximately 3200 miles should be good.
>
>
> "Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
> (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200
> miles should be good.
>
> "Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
> (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200
> miles should be good.
>
>
> Propagation Forecast Scales-
>
> Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
> Good- S7-9
> Fair- S4-6
> Poor- S1-3
>
>
> NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
>
> GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
> (See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
>
> http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp;jsessionid=70301187101071113657379
>
> During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
> levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity
> of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
>
> Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
> induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts
> and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
>
> Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced
> QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
> associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
>
>
> During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels
> in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the
> Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
>
> Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced
> QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones. Southern
> hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
> induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts
> and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
>
> Space Weather Scales-
>
> Kp Indices-
>
> G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
> G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
> G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
> G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
> G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
> Active - Kp = 4
> Unsettled - Kp = 3
>
> Ap Indices-
>
> Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
> Ap 50-99 Major Storm
> Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
> Ap 16-29 Active
> Ap 8-15 Unsettled
> Ap 0-7 Quiet
>
> Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
>
> K- 0= A- 0
> K- 1= A- 3
> K- 2= A- 7
> K- 3= A- 15
> K- 4= A- 27
> K- 5= A- 48
> K- 6= A- 80
> K- 7= A- 140
> K- 8= A- 240
> K- 9= A- 400
>
> Standard Disclaimer-
>
> Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center,
> as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for
> profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public
> by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks
> that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal
> intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein
> is copyrighted � 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And
> Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of
> information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
>
> Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
> forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only
> and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or
> warranty implied.
>
>
> 73,
> Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
> Plant City, FL, USA