[SADXA] from the KB6NU blog

[Jim Henderson]

   This study by Penn and Livingston was released a couple years ago (I 
found this copy at :

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/livingston-penn_sunspots2.pdf

   But Mausumi Dikpati et al, at NCAR in Boulder, were working on this also 
with some new techniques in 2006, and garnered substantial recognition for 
it.

http://192.211.16.13/z/zita/articles/Dik06GRLMar.pdf

   Interestingly enough, their 'prediction' has proven the least inaccurate 
of
the most popular competing forecasts at the time, and seems to be still the 
closest fit up to now.

   With the solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic fields all showing clear 
signs of decreasing strength, the dark arts of solar cycle prediction have 
never been so interesting. I do not think there has been a time between the 
International Geophysical year and now when so many satellites and other 
instruments are busy collecting relevant data.

   But as we saw for most of 2007, 2008, 2009, even with long periods SSN=0, 
there was DX to be worked on HF; and as W6XI points out, the lower bands 
were really good.

   So if these trends continue as put forth by Dikpati, Livingston and Penn 
(et al), Cycle 24 may be worse than Old Time HFers are used to, but it won't 
be as bad as now ops may be led to fear.

   And Dikpati indicated that, while Cycle 24 might start very late and be 
the last peak before a protracted flat period, it might be %30-%50 BIGGER 
THAN #23.

   We can always hope...

   'It's an ill solar wind than blows no good'... :-)


KF7E








----- Original Message ----- 
From: "GAIL E PETERSON" <n7bxx at q.com>
To: "SADXA mail list" <sadxa at mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 2010 10:38 PM
Subject: [SADXA] from the KB6NU blog


>
>
> No Sunspots for Decades?
>
>
> Posted: 06 Oct 2010 11:51 AM PDT
> Two
> solar scientists—Matthew Penn and William Livingston, with the National
> Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona—are predicting that by 2016 
> there may be no remaining sunspots,
> and the sun may stay spotless for several decades.  They’re basing
> their prediction on the measurement of the magnetic field strength of
> 1,500 sunspots since 1990. What they have found is that the average
> strength of the magnetic fields is declining. When the magnetic field
> strength falls below a particular value, sunspots are unable to form.
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