[QCWA] Solar Cycle

Mon Jan 14 21:42:47 EST 2013

Heres some info from a source thats far less dramatic and likely more 
accurate than what Fox News is claiming:

http://www.space.com/19251-sun-eruption-solar-storm.html

de
Bill Pasternak, WA6ITF

At 03:01 PM 1/14/2013, thirsch at ameritech.net wrote:

>/Radio/TV, Cell phone, GPS and satellite technologies
>may be affected - - mebbe more [ ? ]/
>
>
>
>FoxNews January 14, 2013
>
>Sunny, with a mild chance of catastrophe?
>
>A massive solar storm, like the one that knocked out radio 
>communications all over the U.S. in 1958, is coming, and this time 
>the devastation could total as much as $2 trillion, experts told 
>FoxNews.com. Call it the perfect solar storm.
>
>Wireless networks that power Blackberrys and iPhones here on earth, 
>as well as GPS satellites that help pilots navigate planes in the 
>skies, could be blacked out. And electric grids that power 
>neighborhoods and whole cities could temporarily go down, said 
>Professor Jose Lopez, a physicist at Seton Hall University.  "The 
>concern of a strong solar flare in the direction of Earth is legit. 
>The possibility that such a Sun burst could hit Earth could cause 
>extensive damage as it would charge-up our electrical equipment and 
>destroy them," Lopez told FoxNews.com.
>
>    /'Given the explosion of delicate electronic devices ... we have
>    become very vulnerable to solar outbursts.'/   - John A. Bloom, a
>    physicist at Biola University
>
>What starts as a multimillion-degree blast of fire from the sun 
>cools over the vast distances of space. But what remains is a wave 
>of energy that leaves satellites "highly charged" and damages 
>components with its high current. Electronics are also damaged by 
>high-energy particles that penetrate them and interfere with 
>transmissions, as are electronics on Earth.
>
>*Solar maximum in 2013*
>The sun has an activity cycle, much like the hurricane season here 
>on Earth, scientists tell FoxNews.com. And as it reaches a peak in 
>activity, more solar flares and plasma will be hurled our way.
>
>"The ramped up solar activity is to be expected through 2013, as 
>it's the peak of the *Sun's current 11-year cycle*," Lopez explained.
>
>NASA: The world will also not end in 2029 or 2036 
><http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/nasa-the-world-will-also-not-end-in-2029-and-2036/>
>
>The whole solar storm could just pass us by, of course, like a giant 
>hurricane that never quite makes landfall. Don't over-react: the sun 
>is not exploding. The end is not nigh.
>
>"Solar weather forecasting is trickier than earth weather 
>forecasting. Further, the entire solar weather process is not fully 
>understood," Lopez told FoxNews.com. "And predicting the future is 
>unfortunately something that science can't do. Science can give us 
>some potential scenarios of things that might happen, but who knows?"
>
>But what if a big solar flare shot our way? High-voltage 
>transformers that handle tremendous amounts of electrical power take 
>months to build -- and they're built on demand. Should these 
>transformers be destroyed by a solar flare, localized power outage 
>issues could take years to solve.
>
>Data transmissions from some satellites may be scrambled, causing 
>serious noise in the imaging data, and a blackout of high frequency 
>communications networks in the polar regions could make navigation 
>nearly impossible in some cases.
>
>"Given the explosion of delicate electronic devices in cell phones, 
>personal computers, and automotive electronics over the past twenty 
>years, we have become very vulnerable to solar outbursts like what 
>is being predicted," Professor John A. Bloom, a physicist at Biola 
>University, told FoxNews.com.
>
>But wait, it gets worse, scientists say. There are bio-hazards as 
>well. High radiation could harm astronauts floating outside the 
>international space station; passengers and crew in some high-flying 
>aircraft may be exposed to radiation risk too.
>
>Why is the Post Office screwing around with our DVDs? 
><http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/us-appeals-court-gives-ultimatum-to-the-postal-service-over-dvd-mailers/>
>
>Professor Ramon Lopez, a physicist at University of Texas, Austin, 
>who develops space weather models for NASA, tells Fox News.com that 
>science is still figuring out how to accurately measure and track 
>the impact of these "storms from the sun."
>
>Along with flares come solar winds that leave the sun at a million 
>miles an hour. The solar wind is constantly changing, and the 
>Earth's magnetic field is buffeted by these flares like a wind sock 
>in gale-force winds.
>
>Current space weather forecast
>
>A solar activity report issued by the U.S. Air Force and NOAA on 
>Jan. 13, 2013:
>
>*Solar Activity
>*Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. 
>The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 
>13/0838Z from Region 1652. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot 
>regions on the disk.
>
>Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance 
>forX-class flares on Jan. 14 - 16.
>
>*Geomagnetic Field
>*The field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 
>hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached 
>a peak speed of 317 miles per second at 13/2043Z.
>
>The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next 
>three days.
>
>The potential devastation of this year's predicted storm was first 
>detailed in a Bush-era, 132-page NASA report entitled "Severe Space 
>Weather Events 
><http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12507&page=51>: 
>Understanding the Economic and Societal Impact."
>
>It indicates that there will be quite a light show in the skies if 
>the solar storm happens as forecast, with spectacular aurora 
>displays to be seen throughout the Western hemisphere.
>
>A comparable event occurred in 1859 -- a solar storm called the 
>Carrington Event. Scientists tell /FoxNews.com/ the impact of the 
>impending solar storm maximum will be at least as big as the 1859 
>Carrington Event, which caused outages of telegraph networks, the 
>Victorian era's version of the Internet.
>
>*A Cold War scare*
>
>Another, more recent solar storm happened in 1958 and knocked out 
>radio communications in the U.S. at the height of the Cold War, 
>prompting fears that a hot war between the U.S. and Soviet Union had 
>begun. During that event, the northern lights were seen as far south as Mexico.
>
>Already, as of January 2013, the magnetic belts of the Sun have 
>begun to turn very fast, indicating that a new storm is brewing. 
>Data from NASA's THEMIS satellite 
><http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/main/index.html> reveals 
>that a 4,000-mile thick layer of solar particles has accumulated and 
>continues to gather within the outermost part of the magnetosphere, 
>a protective shield created by Earth's magnetic field.
>
>Why you should wait for the Galaxy S4 
><http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/why-you-should-wait-for-the-galaxy-s4/>
>
>The Earth's magnetosphere is supposed to block these solar 
>particles, but this current build-up is expected to be at least 
>30-50 percent more powerful than the storms of the 1850s and 1950s, 
>scientists say.
>
>There's nothing that mankind can do to prevent the storm. But 
>humanity can prepare. NASA is sending warnings to airlines, power 
>companies, and wireless companies about the possible impact on their 
>operations. Back in 2005, a minor solar storm forced United Airlines 
>to reroute 26 commercial flights, at a cost of $100,000 each in fuel 
>costs, due to the impact on navigation systems. The aircraft were 
>forced to fly non-polar routes to ensure their radio systems would 
>not black out.
>
>
>
>Read more: 
>http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/01/14/perfect-solar-storm-sun-activity-to-peak-in-2013/#ixzz2HzVOXcnR
>______________________________________________________________
>QCWA mailing list
>Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/qcwa
>Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
>Post: mailto:QCWA at mailman.qth.net
>
>This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
>Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html