[QCWA] Solar Cycle

[thirsch at ameritech.net]

/Radio/TV, Cell phone, GPS and satellite technologies
may be affected - - mebbe more [ ? ]/



FoxNews January 14, 2013

Sunny, with a mild chance of catastrophe?

A massive solar storm, like the one that knocked out radio 
communications all over the U.S. in 1958, is coming, and this time the 
devastation could total as much as $2 trillion, experts told 
FoxNews.com. Call it the perfect solar storm.

Wireless networks that power Blackberrys and iPhones here on earth, as 
well as GPS satellites that help pilots navigate planes in the skies, 
could be blacked out. And electric grids that power neighborhoods and 
whole cities could temporarily go down, said Professor Jose Lopez, a 
physicist at Seton Hall University.  "The concern of a strong solar 
flare in the direction of Earth is legit. The possibility that such a 
Sun burst could hit Earth could cause extensive damage as it would 
charge-up our electrical equipment and destroy them," Lopez told 
FoxNews.com.

    /'Given the explosion of delicate electronic devices ... we have
    become very vulnerable to solar outbursts.'/   - John A. Bloom, a
    physicist at Biola University

What starts as a multimillion-degree blast of fire from the sun cools 
over the vast distances of space. But what remains is a wave of energy 
that leaves satellites "highly charged" and damages components with its 
high current. Electronics are also damaged by high-energy particles that 
penetrate them and interfere with transmissions, as are electronics on 
Earth.

*Solar maximum in 2013*
The sun has an activity cycle, much like the hurricane season here on 
Earth, scientists tell FoxNews.com. And as it reaches a peak in 
activity, more solar flares and plasma will be hurled our way.

"The ramped up solar activity is to be expected through 2013, as it's 
the peak of the *Sun's current 11-year cycle*," Lopez explained.

NASA: The world will also not end in 2029 or 2036 
<http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/nasa-the-world-will-also-not-end-in-2029-and-2036/>

The whole solar storm could just pass us by, of course, like a giant 
hurricane that never quite makes landfall. Don't over-react: the sun is 
not exploding. The end is not nigh.

"Solar weather forecasting is trickier than earth weather forecasting. 
Further, the entire solar weather process is not fully understood," 
Lopez told FoxNews.com. "And predicting the future is unfortunately 
something that science can't do. Science can give us some potential 
scenarios of things that might happen, but who knows?"

But what if a big solar flare shot our way? High-voltage transformers 
that handle tremendous amounts of electrical power take months to build 
-- and they're built on demand. Should these transformers be destroyed 
by a solar flare, localized power outage issues could take years to solve.

Data transmissions from some satellites may be scrambled, causing 
serious noise in the imaging data, and a blackout of high frequency 
communications networks in the polar regions could make navigation 
nearly impossible in some cases.

"Given the explosion of delicate electronic devices in cell phones, 
personal computers, and automotive electronics over the past twenty 
years, we have become very vulnerable to solar outbursts like what is 
being predicted," Professor John A. Bloom, a physicist at Biola 
University, told FoxNews.com.

But wait, it gets worse, scientists say. There are bio-hazards as well. 
High radiation could harm astronauts floating outside the international 
space station; passengers and crew in some high-flying aircraft may be 
exposed to radiation risk too.

Why is the Post Office screwing around with our DVDs? 
<http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/us-appeals-court-gives-ultimatum-to-the-postal-service-over-dvd-mailers/>

Professor Ramon Lopez, a physicist at University of Texas, Austin, who 
develops space weather models for NASA, tells Fox News.com that science 
is still figuring out how to accurately measure and track the impact of 
these "storms from the sun."

Along with flares come solar winds that leave the sun at a million miles 
an hour. The solar wind is constantly changing, and the Earth's magnetic 
field is buffeted by these flares like a wind sock in gale-force winds.

Current space weather forecast

A solar activity report issued by the U.S. Air Force and NOAA on Jan. 
13, 2013:

*Solar Activity
*Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The 
largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 13/0838Z 
from Region 1652. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the 
disk.

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance forX-class 
flares on Jan. 14 - 16.

*Geomagnetic Field
*The field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak 
speed of 317 miles per second at 13/2043Z.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next 
three days.

The potential devastation of this year's predicted storm was first 
detailed in a Bush-era, 132-page NASA report entitled "Severe Space 
Weather Events 
<http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12507&page=51>: Understanding 
the Economic and Societal Impact."

It indicates that there will be quite a light show in the skies if the 
solar storm happens as forecast, with spectacular aurora displays to be 
seen throughout the Western hemisphere.

A comparable event occurred in 1859 -- a solar storm called the 
Carrington Event. Scientists tell /FoxNews.com/ the impact of the 
impending solar storm maximum will be at least as big as the 1859 
Carrington Event, which caused outages of telegraph networks, the 
Victorian era's version of the Internet.

*A Cold War scare*

Another, more recent solar storm happened in 1958 and knocked out radio 
communications in the U.S. at the height of the Cold War, prompting 
fears that a hot war between the U.S. and Soviet Union had begun. During 
that event, the northern lights were seen as far south as Mexico.

Already, as of January 2013, the magnetic belts of the Sun have begun to 
turn very fast, indicating that a new storm is brewing. Data from NASA's 
THEMIS satellite 
<http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/main/index.html> reveals that 
a 4,000-mile thick layer of solar particles has accumulated and 
continues to gather within the outermost part of the magnetosphere, a 
protective shield created by Earth's magnetic field.

Why you should wait for the Galaxy S4 
<http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/why-you-should-wait-for-the-galaxy-s4/>

The Earth's magnetosphere is supposed to block these solar particles, 
but this current build-up is expected to be at least 30-50 percent more 
powerful than the storms of the 1850s and 1950s, scientists say.

There's nothing that mankind can do to prevent the storm. But humanity 
can prepare. NASA is sending warnings to airlines, power companies, and 
wireless companies about the possible impact on their operations. Back 
in 2005, a minor solar storm forced United Airlines to reroute 26 
commercial flights, at a cost of $100,000 each in fuel costs, due to the 
impact on navigation systems. The aircraft were forced to fly non-polar 
routes to ensure their radio systems would not black out.



Read more: 
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/01/14/perfect-solar-storm-sun-activity-to-peak-in-2013/#ixzz2HzVOXcnR