[PVRCNC] Next Solar Cycle

[Guy Olinger, K2AV]

I will post the same reply to this URL here as I posted on "TopBand". 
Kindly read the following in one window, with the graph in the URL in 
a window beside it. See what you think:

Simply reading the graph in the posted URL, although OVERALL PEAK
correlation is high, using a SINGLE geomagnetic peak to predict a
SINGLE sunspot maximum seems a reach. And there is a lot more
information in the graph besides the peaks.

Depending on how you read it, either peak 15 or 16 was NOT predicted,
and further, peak 23 (the last one) was NOT tightly predicted. 23
should have been more like 21 and 22.

There seems to be a CYCLE to the predictable tight correlation, 17
through 22 being in very close synch. If anything one should guess
that we are now in a period of lesser correlation.

The most recent geomagnetic peak is not as high as the one before
cycle 22. How they get a 1958 style sunspot maxima for cycle 24 from
that graph is beyond me. What ever else they may be using as is not in
the article.

What is most informative for me is to correlate the MINIMUMS. In the
period of cycles 12-16 (source of data?) the distinctive geomagnetic
minimums of cycles 17-23 are missing, AND there is a distinctive
random or noisy nature to the ups and downs not related to 11 year
cycles. The "noise" appears to be something like 5+ nT in amplitude.

Cycle 19 ('58 hard sky) geomagnetic and sunspot shapes can be laid on
top of one another. It is the only one with this degree of top to
bottom (not just peak) correspondence. The lower the sunspot peak the
lesser the correspondence in shapes.

Then look at 11-17 vis-a-vis 17-23. 11, 17 and 23 look like zero
crossings for a 132 year cycle between 11 and 23, with the
negative-going part of the 132 year cycle (11-17) presenting low
sunspot maxima and low geomagnetic correlation and the positive part
(17-23) presenting high sunspot maxima and high geomagnetic
correlation.

Bottom line, IMHO, the strong cycle proponents' proof graph reads like
the weak cycle 24 predictions.

73, Guy.

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Bruce Meier" <bemeier at bellsouth.net>
To: <pvrcnc at mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Monday, December 25, 2006 6:49 AM
Subject: [PVRCNC] Next Solar Cycle


> Get your Christmans presents installed - - - you may be needing 
> them!!
>
> Merry Christmas,
> Bruce - N1LN
>
> ********************************************************
>
> Published: 11:45, December 22, 2006
>
>
> Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle
>
>
> Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one. 
> Solar
> cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be 
> one of the
> most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years 
> ago," says
> solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. 
> He and
> colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the 
> American
> Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.
>
> Their forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms.
>
> Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic 
> field,
> the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard 
> enough, we
> call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause 
> power
> outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. 
> Auroras are a
> beautiful side-effect.
>
> Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity 
> stretching
> back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. "The amount of
> geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to 
> be like 6
> to 8 years in the future," says Hathaway. A picture is worth a 
> thousand
> words:
>
> More, with diagrams and charts:
>
> http://www.physorg.com/news86010302.html
>
> _______________________________________________
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> 




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