[PHX-Skywarn] Tony Haffer, Phoenix National Weather Service

[Allen Sklar]

Hello All,
Do check out the link.....
 
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/06/03/20090603weatherman0603.html
 
And best wishes to Tony and his wife....


Valley weatherman has warm memories From 122° day to '93 floods, big
events marked retiring meteorologist's career
by John Faherty - Jun. 3, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Weathermen remember big weather days like other people remember
birthdays, graduations or weddings. 
It's how they mark time.
Tony Haffer of the National Weather Service remembers his first day as
the chief meteorologist at the agency's Phoenix office. 
It was Monday, June 25, 1990. The temperature reached 120 degrees, the
hottest day in Valley history. 
On Day 2, it got hotter, 122 degrees - a record that still stands. 
"I'm thinking, 'What have I got myself into?' " Haffer said. "It was hot
as hell."
Today, Haffer, 61, will retire after nearly 40 years with the agency. 
He will take with him an encyclopedic knowledge of Arizona weather, an
unyielding respect for nature and an acute awareness that just because
it's usually sunny in Arizona doesn't mean the weather here is easy to
forecast. 

Haffer remembers storms and forecasts. 
He knows the ones he got right and the ones he got wrong. He tried to
learn from all of them.
The flooding of the Salt and Verde rivers in early 1993 was the result
of a combination of events, both natural and man-made. 

"We saw those floods coming, we were really on top of things," Haffer
said. "Murphy (of Murphy's Law) was really having a field day."
First, there was a heavy snowpack. Then, the snow began to melt. Then,
the rains came. All this happened as the Roosevelt Dam was being
reworked to increase its limited capacity. 
"You really begin to realize how small and inconsequential we are in the
scheme of things," Haffer said.
He studied meteorology at the City College of New York because it was a
good field of study for somebody who wanted to become a pilot. 
"It turned out I liked it more than I thought," Haffer said. "I never
became a pilot, but I was providing a real service. Until you do it,
it's hard to explain how good that feels."
Right out of school, Haffer started working as forecaster for what was
then called the Weather Bureau at Kennedy Airport in New York in 1969. 
Then, he went to New Jersey, Oklahoma, Salt Lake City and finally
Phoenix. 
Arizona taught him more about forecasting than he ever would have
believed when he moved here in 1990. 
"We have a lot of sunny days, duh!" Haffer said with a laugh. "To the
real die-hard weather geek, you might think, 'Why would you want to come
here?' " 
Lots of reasons, actually. 
Sean McLaughlin of Channel 5 (KPHO) has been forecasting in the Valley
for many years. 
"In the Midwest, you can track a storm rolling across the plains. But
not here," McLaughlin said. 
In Arizona, storms don't roll in as much as they pop up.
"Our storms come from the heat. It's convection-based," McLaughlin said.
"It's like watching popcorn in a pan and trying to forecast which one is
going to pop."
Haffer made a point early on to form a relationship with the local TV
forecasters. 
"He's a great forecaster, and he's so inclusive, so happy to help,"
McLaughlin said. "He really got onboard early with chat rooms on his Web
site. . . . He helps people in this market be better meteorologists." 

'It is getting warmer' July 3, 2007, was really hot. The afternoon
temperature peaked at 113 degrees. 
But that wasn't what worried Haffer. He was concerned about Independence
Day, with its barbecues and beer drinking and fireworks. 
He issued an excessive-heat warning advising people to stay inside and
drink "abundant" amounts of water. 
"We are concerned," Haffer said that day. "It's one of the most popular
days of the year to be outside, and problems can go up with the
temperature."
He was right to be worried. The temperature hit 116. 
When your official title is the meteorologist in charge of the National
Weather Service in Phoenix, all anybody wants to talk about is the heat.

"There is no debate that it is getting warmer," Haffer said. "Absolutely
none."
This is not a statement about global warming, which Haffer is
disinclined to speak about. It is simply reality.
>From 1896 through 2008, the average number of 110-degree days annually
was 11. From 1979 to 2008, the average number of days was 18. 
Haffer is certain the legendary 122-degree high-temperature mark for the
Valley will be broken. 
"Yes, there is no doubt," he said. "When? I have no idea."
Haffer is not as concerned about the high temperatures as he is about
the fact that summer mornings just don't cool off like they used to. 
The cause, of course, is the well-chronicled urban-heat island. The
roads and the houses and the concrete all across the Valley grab hold of
the daytime heat and don't let go. 
"One-hundred degrees as a low? It's in the bag," Haffer said. "It's
scary, it really is."

Don't be deceived The monsoon storm of Aug. 28, 2008, was a monster. 
Haffer had it nailed. 
"We knew a major storm was coming," Haffer said. 
So, the Weather Service issued warnings and alerts. But it is difficult
to be certain of a storm. 
That may be why, on that August day, Haffer looked out the window at a
clear-blue sky and blinked. 
"We changed our forecast a little bit," Haffer said. "We thought maybe
it might not be as severe. Then, at about 8 at night, the door got
opened and Mother Nature came pouring in."
The rain came in buckets; there were 1,500 lighting strikes in the
Valley in just one hour. Wind gusts approached 100 mph. 
The forecast was close enough that it may have kept people safe, but
Haffer still regrets that he had all the data to make a perfect forecast
and backed off because it didn't pass the eyeball test.
"I'm looking out the window and seeing nothing. We changed our forecast
on that," he said. "That's the significance of the science versus the
bias of the small piece of the sky that our eyes can see."

The perfect forecast On March 10, 2006, Haffer staked his reputation on
a forecast. 
There had been no rain in the Valley for a record 143 consecutive days.
But Haffer just knew that it was going to rain on March 11. 
"Take it to the bank, it is going to rain," Haffer told The Arizona
Republic with no equivocation. 
And, on March 11, a steady rain fell just about all day long. 
"I was so proud of us that day," Haffer said. "We knew it would rain. It
was perfect. I picked up the paper that morning, and there it was."
That day revealed what forecasters have known: A short-term forecast is
almost always right. The two-day forecast is darn close. And the
five-day forecast is now likely to be "in the ballpark" according to
Haffer. But he said, "I wouldn't change plans I am making as a person
based on a seven-day forecast." 

Enjoying the weather Starting Thursday, Haffer will be out of the
forecasting business. He says he has worked in weather for so long, he
misses being able to enjoy it. 
"I miss seeing the rain and playing in it," he said. "It's always meant
work for me." 
He and his wife will move down to Casa Grande just in time for summer. 
"We're going to move down there and relax," Haffer said. "We'll be
settled in just in time to watch the monsoon storms. I can't wait."


Allen Sklar, W7AS
Spotter ID MAA 224
Tempe AZ USA