[PHX-Skywarn] SE AZ Hazardous Weather Outlook

[Stan Weintraub]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1205 PM MST TUE JUL 23 2002

.SYNOPSIS...THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH AND 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EAST AND ABOVE 
CLIMATOLOGY WEST.

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
PLENTIFUL...MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR IS SPEED OF MOTION AND IF WE CAN GET ANY 
ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS. GENERALLY STRONGER EAST WINDS ALOFT FAVOR LOW 
DESERTS WEST OF TUCSON FOR BOTH SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO. SEVERE SEEMS LESS LIKELY...EXCEPT TOWARDS PICACHO AND 
WESTERN AREAS. PHOENIX SOUNDING THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE A SEVERE WEATHER 
SOUNDING...WIND SPEEDS ARE EVEN LOWER THERE FOR SLOWER STORM MOTION...SO 
BEST THREAT OF SEVERE IN OUR WARNING AREA WOULD BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 
ORGAN PIPE...TO SELLS TO PICACHO
TO WINKLEMAN.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN...BEST CHANCE IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...ONCE AGAIN DUE 
TO SLOWER STORM MOTION AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. BUT WITH HIGH 
WATER VALUES AVAILABLE FOR STORMS ANY LOCATION IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MAY SEE 
LOCAL ONE INCH RAINS.

STORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY FORMED THIS MORNING OVER THE SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS 
HAVE SHOWN A MOTION OF NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

NOTE THE TUCSON DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL NOT IN OPERATION DUE TO COMMUNICATION 
LINE PROBLEMS...WE WILL BE DEPENDING ON OTHER RADARS AND SATELLITE 
INFORMATION TO DETERMINE BOTH SEVERITY OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

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73,

Stan

KC7CJS - For bio - see: http://www.qrz.com/detail/KC7CJS

For Daylight WebCam and Current Weather from the University of Arizona, 
Tucson, AZ - see:
http://www.cs.arizona.edu/camera/

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