[PBARC] AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

[JJ Knight]

000
FXUS64 KLZK 212319 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
619 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2019

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2019)
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IT'S BEEN A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE RESTING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE RIDGE, ONE ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGHING TO OUR WEST CAN BE
SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS.

EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. AS IT DOES SO, WE COULD SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SMALL
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, SO SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, EXPECT THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
STATE. AS IT APPROACHES, SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TO SHOW A MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS. THAT BEING SAID, WHILE THE SPECIFICS
DIFFER, THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME, THAT BEING, ANOTHER
BATCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THE
MODEL SPREAD BEING WHAT IT IS, A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH NO PARTICULAR WEIGHT BEING GIVEN TO ANY OF THEM.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH PREDOMINATELY SPLIT FLOW AND A DEEP BUT
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF
THE COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY FLAT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS TO COASTAL MAINE. THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL KICK OUT AS THE FRONT SAGS A
LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE STATE AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW. NUMEROUS IMPULSES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
PROXIMITY OF SAID FRONT.

THE ACTUAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STATE WIDE UNTIL THE SYSTEM FINALLY
CLEARS. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT
AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AS TROUGH REMAINS POSITIVELY
TILTED THROUGHOUT AND OVERALL INSTABILITY IS LACKING.

HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL
AVERAGE CLOSE TO OR EVEN AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...67

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