[PBARC] Much colder and Winter Weather?

[E Glenn Wolf Jr]

First, it does appear that a strong arctic cold front will move through 
the region over the weekend, bringing much colder weather to the state 
for next week.

Second, from this morning's Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS Tulsa, 
the 00Z GFS model...which was dry last night...now is bringing a 
southern stream wave south across the central plains early next week, 
dumping several inches of snow across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. 
However, very few other models even resemble it (only 3 of 20 Canadian 
ensembles did). Plus, the models have always had a difficult time with 
cold air, moisture, and storm systems in Arkansas...and the GFS appears 
to be cold biased, as it were. The Area Forecast Discussion from 
Oklahoma City is saying parts of their region may need a "Winter Weather 
Advisory" early next week...but this far out, forecast wise, it's too 
early to tell exactly what may occur. A slight chance of rain or snow is 
forecast Monday night across parts of Arkansas...and another system is 
forecast toward the end of next week...its effects remain to be seen.

With the La Nina weather pattern, late fall/early winter may start cold, 
with possible winter precipitation events. However, as it gets warmer, 
so to speak, any winter precipitation events may go from a snow to an 
ice storm event...then to a severe weather event after the first of the 
year, as we get toward spring.

As the old saying goes, "if you don't like Arkansas' weather...wait 5 
minutes"... But, if a storm system goes 50 miles in either direction 
from what is forecast...it can mean snow, ice, rain, or severe weather.

Below normal temperatures appear certain next week...however, the extent 
of winter precipitation...if any...is uncertain at this point. While a 
winter storm...especially snow...would add some "holiday flavor", it 
would definitely cause problems for those who have to travel, or be out 
in it.


Remember the winter storm that brought snow to portions of Arkansas this 
past winter (I believe February)...it caught many folks by surprise!! 
But, with the colder weather, be sure to dress accordingly, if you must 
be outdoors...especially with the height of flu season approaching.