[PBARC] Severe Weather for Arkansas -

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

All - 

This is a note that I received about tomorrow's weather.  Be aware of
the volatile weather situation that seems to be materializing.

Thanks, 
Glenn



There will be a moderate to high risk for severe weather over all of
Arkansas tonight and especially 
Thursday including long track large tornados.  Set-up very similar to
Feb. 5th event.

Large scale severe weather event will blossom tonight and especially
Thursday in several states 
including Arkansas.  Mid / upper level Jet Max in excess of 125 MPH from
the southwest will phase 
with the moist southerly 60-85 MPH Low Level Jet creating very strong
deep layer wind shear 
profiles supportive of supercell development.  Significant atmospheric
pressure falls coupled with 
an intensifying surface low pressure area moving from western TX tonight
to near Kansas City MO 
Thursday afternoon, in conjunction with high thermodynamic energy
(temperature / moisture) will 
be in place to support tornadic supercells.  Specifically, 3-D
thermodynamic and wind shear fields 
will be of sufficient strength to support long lived long track
quasi-discrete tornadic supercells of 
F-3 to F5 intensity.  Historically, F-3 to F5 tornados produce most of
the deaths and damage.....
(aka Atkins / Clinton Tornado 2/5/08).   

The area of greatest concern should be better defined by Thursday
morning.  All of AR should see a 
varying degree of severe storms.