[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[E. Glenn Wolf, Jr.]

Keep an eye to the skies!

73,
Glenn
N5RN

-----Original Message-----
From: egwolfjr at email.com [mailto:egwolfjr at email.com] 
Sent: Friday, February 23, 2007 04:29
To: egwolfjr at email.com
Subject: Hazardous Weather Outlook


FLUS44 KLZK 231014
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WEATHER 
SYSTEM WILL HELP BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND 
PROVIDE THE NATURAL STATE WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG 
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY 
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERS LIKELY ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL 
BOTH DEEPEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH 
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COPIOUS 
AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. 

A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING 
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS 
SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY MORNING 
AND SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON... 
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW 
MOVES INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. 

THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT 
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO THE NATURAL STATE THIS SEASON. WHILE 
INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A STRONG JET STREAK ROUNDING 
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH WINDS ALOFT COULD EASILY BE 
BROUGHT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL IS 
ALSO A CONCERN. AS SUCH...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF ARKANSAS SATURDAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. 

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME 
TORNADIC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST 
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF BOTH SPEED AND 
DIRECTIONAL SHEER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP 
INTO ROTATION IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY OF 
TORNADOES WILL HE HIGHER SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK BUT ALL AREAS WILL BE 
SUSCEPTIBLE. 

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS 
SYSTEM...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SOME WHERE IN 
THE LITTLE ROCK COUNTY WARNING AREA SATURDAY. SINCE SOME TIME HAS 
PASSED SINCE OUR LAST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...NOW WOULD BE A GOOD 
TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES. 

ONCE THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL 
RETURN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST TO 
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST 
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$

38/56 




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