[PBARC] FW: Severe Weather Outlook - from John Robinson

[E. Glenn Wolf, Jr.]

From: "John.Robinson" <John.Robinson at noaa.gov>
 Saturday, March 11, 2006 5:40 AM
Subject: Severe Weather Outlook


SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL THREATEN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN 
SUNDAY. 

I AM AFRAID THAT WE TRULY COULD SEE SOME LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER IN THE 
STATE.

The main period of concern today will be from the afternoon hours on 
through the evening, with severe weather possibilities probably tapering 
off around midnight.  Large hail will probably be the greatest threat, 
although there will almost certainly be some damaging winds as well.  
Some of the hail will probably be golf ball size hail or larger.  There 
will also be an enhanced risk of tornadoes...some of which could be F2 
or greater intensity.  The greatest uncertainty at this time is whether 
the severe weather could begin at early afternoon or whether it will 
wait until late afternoon.

The situation will replay itself on Sunday.  The main period of concern 
will be from mid-afternoon on through the evening hours until a few 
hours after midnight.  Damaging winds and large hail look to have about 
equal chances of occurring.  There again will be an enhanced risk of 
tornadoes, some of which could be F2 or greater in intensity.

 From today through Sunday, rainfall amounts over much of the state 
should be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range.  In central and northeastern 
sections, 1 to 2 inch amounts are more probable.

Our office normally sends up weather balloons twice a day (5 AM and 5 PM 
when we are on CST).  To help better gauge the severe weather threat, 
the Storm Prediction Center has indicated that we will probably be asked 
to send up extra balloons today at 11:30 AM and 11:30 PM.

I will be out of the office at least until mid-afternoon.  I will issue 
the next message after I return to the office, but that may be as late 
as early this evening.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock
Office Web site:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk