[PBARC] Severe Weather Outlook - John Robinson

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2006 8:03 AM

Subject: Severe Weather Outlook

 

Thursday, April 6, 2006, 8:03 AM

I still believe we will see life-threatening area later today into Friday.

We will have some showers and thunderstorms in the state today. Chances 

of severe weather appear to be low.

Around late afternoon, we should see the main severe weather threat 

entering northwest and west central Arkansas. The greatest risk of 

severe weather in Arkansas will occur in northwest, west central, and 

north central sections from late afternoon through about mid evening. 

During this time frame, very large hail (greater than golf ball size), 

very damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be the threats A couple 

of tornadoes of F2 or greater intensity will certainly be possible.

>From mid evening on, damaging winds and large hail will both be 

possible. The tornado threat will decrease somewhat, but isolated 

tornadoes will still be possible. These conditions apply to most other 

sections of Arkansas through the overnight hours. Only southeast 

Arkansas will be excluded from the severe weather threat tonight.

On Friday, we should see redevelopment in central or eastern Arkansas 

around midday. These storms will sweep eastward and should be east of 

the Mississippi River by early Friday evening. Very large hail and a 

few tornadoes will be possible with this activity. The farther east you 

go in the state, the greater the threat.

Friday evening and Friday night, an upper level low pressure center will 

move across Arkansas. I can't rule out some hail, especially in the 

northern half of the state.

Tonight and Friday, the storms will be moving very quickly, so people 

will have less time to react to warnings.

Tonight through Friday, most rainfall amounts will be in the 1/4 to 1/2 

inch range. Under the core of the strongest storms, there may be some 1 

to 2 inch amounts over small areas.

I will be out of the office from later this morning through Friday. 

Thus, this will likely be the last message on the upcoming severe 

weather episode. The weather maps have really been consistent on how 

this weather is going to occur, so I think any future messages would 

have few changes from what I have written above anyway.

John Robinson

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service, Little Rock

Office Web site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk <http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk>