[PBARC] RITA VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

 RITA VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. Hurricane Watches will
be posted by late this afternoon for the Texas coast. 

As of 4:00 PM EDT Wednesday, Rita is packing sustained winds of 165 mph with
gusts to 185 mph; this makes Rita a category 5 hurricane. This is the
season's second catastrophic hurricane. As of 2:00 PM EDT, Rita was centered
near 24.3 north and 86.2 west, or 745 miles east-southeast of Corpus
Christi, Texas. The minimum central pressure has fallen to 920 millibars
(27.17 inches of mercury). Rita was moving to the west at 14 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles, and tropical
storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center of
circulation. Given that Rita is on the verge of becoming a category 5
hurricane, the wind field will probably expand further later today. 

Rita will continue to track westward through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday afternoon and night with further strengthening expected as it
crosses the same warm waters that helped Katrina strengthen into a Category
5 hurricane. So, it is no surprise that this hurricane has become a
catastrophic hurricane. 

Rita will generally track to the west as an upper-level high pressure ridge
over Texas expands eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The track
that Rita takes will depend on how this high moves, weakens and strengthens.
We currently expect this upper ridge of high pressure to remain strong and
steer Rita on a general westerly course across the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico through Wednesday night into Thursday. Then we expect the high to
either split or move eastward causing Rita to move west-northwest early
Friday then more northwestward Friday night and Saturday. We are estimating
landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi sometime between 6 p.m. Friday
and 6 a.m. Saturday. Ocean water analysis shows some cooler water in place
about 300 miles off the Texas coast, then warmer water again right near the
Texas coast in our primary projected landfall area, so the intensity
forecast at landfall will be a real challenge. After Rita makes landfall, it
will head northwest between Austin and Houston then track between Dallas and
Tyler Sunday. We expect hurricane force winds to spread over a large area of
eastern Texas after landfall. In fact, high-rise buildings in the Houston
area could experience wind gusts to near 100 mph. This could cause some
windows to shatter. In addition to possible damaging hurricane-force winds,
tornadoes might be spawned by the cyclonic rotation from Rita mainly east
and northeast of the center of circulation.