[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[egwolfjr at email.com]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 171859
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
200 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND 
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MOSTLY ALONG AND TO NORTH NORTH OF THIS 
BOUNDARY. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME 
STRONG...AND A FEW MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. 

ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF 
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WALDRON...TO 
HOT SPRINGS...TO CLARENDON. THIS INCLUDES THE LITTLE ROCK 
METROPOLITAN AREA. 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR MONDAY...
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON 
MONDAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HARRISON TO HOT SPRINGS...AND 
NORTH OF A LINE FROM HOT SPRINGS TO STUTTGART. A SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD 
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD 
NORTHEAST OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF ARKANSAS BEFORE 
DISSIPATING OR MOVING EASTWARD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON MONDAY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF 
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE STORMS 
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES...THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL 
APPEARS LOWER FOR MONDAY. 

ALSO...LAKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. WINDS SPEEDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ON MONDAY...BUT STRONGER 
GUSTS MAY DEVELOP. BOATERS SHOULD USE CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT ONTO 
AREA LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. 

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH 
AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE SECTION OF ARKANSAS WILL HAVE THE 
NECESSARY CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO 
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END 
OF THE WEEK. THIS FAR AHEAD...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE AS NEWER DATA 
IS ANALYZED. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER 
THIS WEEK...AND LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE 
FORECAST. 

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...OVER MAINLY THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...AS 
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN.  

$$

73,
Glenn