[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[pbarc@mailman.qth.net]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 221607 AAA
HWOLIT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1115 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE 
NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  

A SYSTEM ALOFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY 
PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
REDEVELOP...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STORMS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS 
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. 

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT 
IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MENA...CONWAY...AND SALEM. 

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL GRADUALLY 
EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO FOCUS 
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI 
BORDER. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED 
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING. 
THERE WILL BE A LULL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE STORMS IN THE 
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. GIVEN 
THIS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOST 
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY TO 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. 

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH 
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW BY MONDAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

$$

38


73,
Glenn