[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[pbarc@mailman.qth.net]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 171552 AAA
HWOLIT
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
950 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING... 
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD... 
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF 
ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL 
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT 
TONIGHT.

IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH 
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION 
EFFICIENCY...WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. IT 
APPEARS THAT TWO TO THREE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR...WITH 
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST WEATHER DATA INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE AMOUNT 
OF WIND ENERGY WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS 
ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE INTO FAST MOVING STORMS...WITH THE STORMS 
EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT 
WILL WORK INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY 
ALSO OCCUR. 

PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO PLAN FOR ACTIVE WEATHER 
STARTING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. LISTEN FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION FROM 
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
ARKANSAS EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO 
SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY 
MORNING...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DECREASE AFTER THE 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH A GIVEN LOCATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO 
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF 
SEVERE WEATHER BY THIS TIME WILL BE LOW...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL COULD 
ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

THE ENTIRE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER 
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND EARLY 
TUESDAY. 

$$

22




73,
Glenn