[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

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Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 160904
HWOLIT
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT 
IS STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AND STALL ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. THIS 
WILL ALLOW VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO FLOW INTO THE 
ENTIRE STATE. THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG WINDS 
ALOFT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF 
THIS ADVANCING LOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...IT WILL ACT ON THIS TROPICAL AIR ALREADY IN 
PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE 
WEATHER A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY MORNING OVER WESTERN 
ARKANSAS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE. ALL OF 
ARKANSAS IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTS 
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS UNDER A MODERATE RISK. THE MODERATE RISK EXTENDS 
WEST OF A CAMDEN TO BENTON TO CLARKSVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE BUT 
ANYWHERE IN ARKANSAS IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ONCE THE 
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED....A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY 
RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN 
OKLAHOMA AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATURAL STATE. WITH 
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...THIS MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN 
WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS 
IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...BECOMING  
WEAKER AS IT DOES. RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING 
BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST SCATTERED 
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL 
BE LOW BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF 
THE STATE EARLY IN THE DAY. 

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND 
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR 
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

56


73,
Glenn