[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

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FLUS44 KLZK 131039
HWOLIT
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF 
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY 
SOUTH TODAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT WILL DRIVE WEAK 
SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT 
WITH THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. 

THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE 
FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND WERE PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST 
ARKANSAS. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL BEFORE 
DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAT OF THE DAY 
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL 
FORM A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN 
ARKANSAS. STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND 
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. 

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE IS ALSO THE 
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY 
INCREASING IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL MAKE STORMS MORE EFFICIENT 
RAIN PRODUCERS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION 
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL CUTOFF THE NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT 
AND WILL ALSO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE. THE CAPPING WILL TEND TO LIMIT 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS...IT APPEARS THE WEATHER IN 
ARKANSAS WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THERE 
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF 
ARKANSAS...AFFECTING THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST OR NORTHERN MEXICO.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN 
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

$$

46




73,
Glenn