[PBARC] Winter Storm Forecast

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

Winter Storm Forecast

    Issued:   10:15 AM Friday January 17, 2003

Another Surge of Arctic Air Still Appears Likely Next Week 


As expected, cold air has now spread across the entire southern U.S. this morning with some of the coldest temperatures of the season reported so far. The high pressure center responsible for these very cold temperatures is now centered over the southern Plains where temperatures are in the single digits as far south as southern Kansas. We expect this high to settle southward along the Gulf coast tonight, resulting in even colder readings from Texas eastward to Florida. Inland areas of Houston and New Orleans can expect morning low's in the mid to upper 20's tomorrow morning with a light freeze likely across inland areas of the Florida Peninsula, as far south as Orlando and Lakeland. A warming trend will take place from west to east beginning tomorrow as the high center pushes into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Snowfall has now ended along the mid-Atlantic coast as low pressure has moved well offshore. The Richmond area did report up to 4 inches of snow from this storm system!
. 

There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with regards to the potential Arctic outbreak next week. We are still quite confident that a significant surge of Arctic air will reach the Gulf coast during the middle or later part of next week, however the timing and intensity of this air is still in question. Most of the long range models are coming into at least some agreement in the overall pattern which appears quite favorable for a significant intrusion of Arctic air in the central and southern U.S. The biggest question now is whether this Arctic air will come down in pieces or in one large chunk. The later scenario would result in the coldest temperatures with low's in the 20's likely along the immediate Gulf coast. We are still not ruling out the possibility that temperatures could be even colder, perhaps in the teens. The chances for temperatures that cold still appear rather low, however. 

As far as timing is concerned, several of the computer models are still suggesting that the leading edge of this Arctic air will slow down over the Plains, delaying the arrival along the Gulf coast for a day or two. Very cold Arctic air of this magnitude does not usually slow down as it reaches the Plains due to the interaction with the Rockies. In fact, Arctic air of this strength usually accelerates across the Plains and reaches the Gulf coast sooner than most models indicate. The most likely time period for the arrival of this Arctic air to the Gulf coast is from the 22nd to the 24th of January. As far as any threat for frozen or freezing precipitation is concerned, the computer models usually do a poor job of trying to predict any southern stream energy that may come into play this far in advance. We would like to stress that there will be at least some chance for freezing rain, sleet or snow across portions of the deep south during the mid to later part of next week, bu!
t confidence is not high. 

The next Winter Storm Forecast will be issued near 10:00 AM Saturday. 

George Quenzer 


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