[PBARC] FW: Winter Storm Outlook

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

Winter Storm Outlook

    Issued:   10:30 AM Monday January 13, 2003


Arctic Air Forecast to Move into the Southern United States Later this Week 


Confidence remains quite high this morning that some of the coldest air of the season will move into southern U.S. later this week. The source region of this cold air will be extreme northwestern Canada where temperatures are currently in the -15 to -25F degree range. An airmass this cold would certainly result in temperatures in the 20's across inland portions of the Gulf coast with near 30 possible along the immediate coast. Freezing temperatures can be expected again Sunday morning as high pressure lingers along the Gulf coast. Florida will see their coldest readings Sunday and Monday morning as the high slides across the southeastern U.S. The freezing line could certainly reach into the central portion of the Peninsula both of these mornings. A warming trend will take place from west to east along the Gulf coast beginning next Monday as the high slides farther east. 

Indications are that another surge of Arctic cold air may threaten most of the central and southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week. There is still some question as to the exact track this second surge of very cold air will take, but the details should become more clear over the next few days. The northeastern portion of the country will remain in the grip of very cold Arctic air for most of the next 7 to 10 days with little relief expected. Lake effect snow will also continue as the cold air passes over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes. 

As far as precipitation is concerned, low pressure is forecast to develop along the leading edge of this cold air as it moves into the southern Plains on Wednesday. This storm system is expected to put down a swath of moderate to heavy snow from Kansas and Nebraska eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast where as much as 6-10 inches could accumulate. Moderate amounts of snow are likely even farther south, across Oklahoma and the remainder of Arkansas where as much as 4-6 inches are possible. Since the cold air will be quite deep, we do not see a significant threat of freezing rain with this system. 

The next Winter Storm Forecast will be issued near 10:00 AM Tuesday. 

George Quenzer 


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