[PBARC] FW: Winter Storm Outlook

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

Winter Storm Outlook
    Issued:   10:00 AM Sunday February 23, 2003

A Stormy Pattern Across the Southern Plains and the U.S. East Coast Over the Next Two Weeks 


Arctic air sinking southward across the U.S. will interact with an active southern storm track over the next several weeks to produce 3-4 snow/ice events across both the southern U.S. and along the U.S. East Coast as well. The two most significant events across the deep south and East Coast appear to be the storm system of Tuesday through Friday, February 25-28th, and the following week from March 6-8th. 

This Arctic air is currently moving southward toward the Gulf Coast and will remain in place as two upper level disturbances move out of the Rockies early next week. The first disturbance will be the weaker of the two, moving across northeastern Texas Monday evening then weakening furthe r as it moves off to the east. The result may be a band of mixed precipitation across northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas from late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Ice accumulations due to freezing rain will probably remain below 1/8th inch with this first event, and we don't expect a large area to be affected. The stronger disturbance moves out of the Rockies on Wednesday morning. While this second system may produce some mixed precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas on Wednesday, the greatest threat for significant ice accumulation may come later, when the storm reach the East Coast on Thursday. The freezing rain could change over to snow by late after!
noon Thursday as the low heads out to sea. Its difficult to estimate exactly where, and how much ice may accumulate from this storm so far in advance, but the areas mentioned above could see between 1/8th to 1/4th inch of ice from freezing rain. 

The second major storm system may affect the southern Plains beginning on March 6th. A reinforcing shot of Arctic air will likely move out of Canada by March 3rd. The Arctic air, combined with a strong southern stream disturbance moving out of the Rockies late on the 5th, may result in a winter storm across Oklahoma and Kansas late on the 5th and early on the 6th. Primarily, we're talking about a heavy snow event, as conditions won't favor a large area of freezing rain. The band of heavy snow should then extend across Pennsylvania and southern New England on the 7th, then taper off and end on the 8th. As with the southern Plains, we don't see a large area of freezing rain along the East Coast ahead of this storm system. 

Looking down the road, there are indications that the stormy pattern will be letting up by the second week of March as the Polar vortex, south of James Bay, begins to weaken. 


The next update will be issued near 10:00 AM CST Monday. 

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Steve Lizon 
 


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