[PBARC] azardous Weather Outlook

[InterWARN]

FLUS44 KLZK 141051
HWOLIT
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH 
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS WILL COMBINE TO PUMP LARGE AMOUNTS 
OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE 
TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING MUCH WARMER IN AS WELL. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY IN THE WARM... 
MOISTURE LADEN AIR AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE 
THROUGH. SOME OF SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION
..THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BE INCREASED IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. ANY 
SUNSHINE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR FURTHER.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT WITH A 
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLAM INTO THE WARM AND MOIST AIR AND THE 
RESULT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL 
AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL 
ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT. THE KEY FACTOR TO THE STRENGTH OF THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE STABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IF THE 
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY INCREASES AS A RESULT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD 
COVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL ALSO INCREASE.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY SATURDAY OVER 
EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL 
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY 
SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE 
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO CLEAR THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST 
ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. ENOUGH COLDER 
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW THAT A MIX OF 
RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY EVENING. 
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

$$

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