[PaQSO]
How rare is that county? (Or for that matter, how common?)
MORSENUT at aol.com
MORSENUT at aol.com
Wed Jul 14 22:42:24 EDT 2004
Hello Fellow PAQPers:
I've been having some fun with KD8MQ's PAQP website.
It's a wealth of information about PAQP and you should stop by it some time
for a look.
Many thanks to John for a great website!
One of the things that always interests me is how rare a given county is or
conversely, how common is it?
What does the "average" county contribute to the overall points awarded?
(Yeah, I am a geek, LOL.)
Using the information on John's website, I took a five year average (the last
five PAQPs) of the percentage of the overall point totals awarded by a given
country.
I added the percentages each county contributed to the overall score of each
of the last five PAQPs and divided by 67 (the total # of counties) to arrive
at "an average" contribution" over the last five years.
That average number turned out to be: 1.44%.
So an average contribution in points awarded by a given county is 1.44% of
the total points awarded in a given PAQP.
Now, some of this will come as no surprise to experienced PAQPers, but I
think some it may also make you say "I never would have thought that," and for
those operators who will participate in their first PAQP, it will give you an
overall view of what to expect on the air come October while knowing what to
really look hard for regarding multipliers.
>From the most common to the least, here is an average point contribution
breakdown for all PAQP counties over the last five contests: (Full spelling of
the county names to aid newcomers. Please see the abbreviation list though!)
COUNTY Percentage of points given averaged
over 5 contests
Luzerne 10.57
Berks 7.3
Erie 5.0
Allegheny 4.33
NorthAmpton 3.87 "Very
Common"
Lehigh 3.24
Centre 2.86
Bucks 2.74
Monroe 2.32
Carbon 2.17
______________________________________________________________________________
Adams 1.84
Schuykill 1.82
Beaver 1.79
Lebanon 1.75
Butler 1.63
Columbia 1.60
"Moderately Common"
Warren 1.59
York 1.59 (Tie)
Lacawanna 1.52
Westmoreland 1.50
McKean 1.47
Cambria 1.45
_____________________________________________________________________________
Pike 1.25
Washington 1.24
Mifflin 1.20
Lycoming 1.15
"Moderately Rare"
Wyoming 1.13
Chester 1.10
Clearfield 1.04
Fulton 1.00
Huntingdon 1.00
_____________________________________________________________________________
Blair .97
Venango .96
Philadelphia .96
Green .94
Dauphin .93
Sullivan .91
"Rare"
Tioga .85
Delaware .83
Indiana .83
Bradford .81
Somerset .80
Montour .80
Potter .79
Franklin .79
Mercer .78
Lawerence .76
______________________________________________________________________________
Crawford .72
Clarion .65
Susquehanna .64
Jefferson .63
Wayne .60
Perry .56
("Very Rare")
Lancaster .56
Cumberland .53
Defined as half or less of
Union .52
1.44 % average point contribution)
Northumberland .51
Clinton .50
______________________________________________________________________________
Cameron .49
Forrest .42
Elk .41
("Extremely Rare")
Fayette .40
Bedford .36
Armstrong .35
Snyder .31
______________________________________________________________________________
So SNY is the rarest county over the last five years based on this average.
I would not have thought that. Somehow, my impression would have led me to
regard POT or maybe ELK as having that distinction.
Now, one of the things that I noticed when calculating the averages was this:
Sometimes a given "Extremely" or "very rare" county would be WAY below
average one year, yet the next show numbers well above the 1.44 percent "average
contribution mark."
This is owing in large part, I think, to rovers and mobiles heading out to
these spots or just people going to a given county and operating fixed because
it was "very rare" the year before.
But it may just be by happenstance that a given year shows some marked
increase owing to more activity from local hams.
So I wondered about the probability that a given "Very Rare" or "Extremely
Rare" county might be activated in a given year by individual fixed operators,
rovers, more numerous mobiles, or just more activity from local hams living
there and thereby have its overall point contribution spiked at "average" or
"above average" for that given year.
To do this, I looked at the number of years one of the "Extremely" or "Very
Rare" counties showed point contributions above the 1.44 percent benchmark I
had decided upon in any one of the last ten years and gave them a number based
on the number of times this occurred.
If a given "Extremely" or "Very" rare county shot up to "above average" point
contribution totals in a given year once, I assigned it a "plus 1," and for 2
times, a "plus 2" and so on.
A lower overall number means that a given county is likely to stay in the
"Very" or "Extremely" rare category based on the 1.44 percent "average" benchmark
in a given year:
COUNTY Likelihood of retaining
status as "Very"
or "Extremely
Rare" in a given year
from highest
probability to lowest
(The lower the
number, the most likely)
______________________________________________________________________________
Jefferson 4.63 (Spiked 4 times in
10 yrs. above "average")
Crawford 3.72
Susquehanna 3.64
Armstrong 2.35
Wayne 1.60
Perry 1.56
Lancaster 1.56
Cumberland 1.53
Bedford 1.36
Fayette 1.40
Clarion .65
Union .52
Northumberland .51
Clinton .50
Cameron .49
Forrest .42
Elk .41
Snyder .31
______________________________________________________________________________
Well, you can draw you own conclusions but the above may be a good benchmark
to plan a mobile route or decide "where to go" in a given year.
Just my musings!
73,
Tim
N8LXR
Philadelphia
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