[PaQSO] How rare is that county? Or for that matter, how common? Part 2

[MORSENUT at aol.com]

Now, one of the things that I noticed when calculating the averages was this: 
 Sometimes a given "Extremely" or "very rare" county would be WAY below 
average one year, yet the next show numbers well above the 1.44 percent "average 
contribution mark."

This is owing in large part, I think, to rovers  and mobiles heading out to 
these spots or just people going to a given county and operating fixed because 
it was "very rare" the year before. 

But it may just be by happenstance that a given year shows some marked 
increase owing to more activity from local hams.

So I wondered about the probability that a given "Very Rare" or "Extremely 
Rare" county might be activated in a given year by individual fixed operators, 
rovers, more numerous mobiles,  or just more activity from local hams living 
there and thereby have its overall point contribution spiked at "average" or 
"above average" for that given year.

To do this, I looked at the number of years one of the "Extremely" or "Very 
Rare" counties  showed point contributions above the 1.44 percent benchmark I 
had decided upon in any one of the last ten years and gave them a number based 
on the number of times this occurred.

If a given "Extremely" or "Very" rare county shot up to "above average" point 
contribution totals in a given year once, I assigned it a "plus 1," and for 2 
times, a "plus 2" and so on.


A lower overall number means that a given county is likely to stay in the 
"Very" or "Extremely" rare category based on the 1.44 percent "average" benchmark 
in a given year:


COUNTY                                              Likelihood of retaining 
status as "Very"
                                                           or "Extremely 
Rare" in a given year
                                                           from highest 
probability to lowest
                                                          (The lower the 
number, the most likely)
                                                                 
______________________________________________________________________________

Jefferson                                          4.63   (Spiked 4 times in 
10 yrs. above
                                                                              
   "Average")

Crawford                                          3.72
Susquehanna                                   3.64
Armstrong                                         2.35
Juniata                                             1.61
Wayne                                              1.60
Perry                                                1.56
Lancaster                                         1.56
Cumberland                                     1.53
Bedford                                             1.36
Fayette                                             1.40
Clarion                                               .65
Union                                                 .52
Northumberland                                 .51
Clinton                                               .50
Cameron                                            .49
Forrest                                               .42
Elk                                                     .41
Snyder                                               .31
______________________________________________________________________________

Well, you can draw you own conclusions but the above may be a good benchmark 
to plan a mobile route or decide "where to go" in a given year.

Just my musings!

73,

Tim
N8LXR
Philadelphia