[OKDXA] NOAA Predicts Solar Cycle 24

[John Geiger]

That's pretty depressing, isn't it?  Time to improve the 160/80/40 antennas, I guess.  At least Es on the only band that really matters (50mhz) isn't affected by sunspot numbers.

73s JOhn AA5JG

--- On Fri, 5/8/09, N5PA <n5pa at n5pa.com> wrote:

> From: N5PA <n5pa at n5pa.com>
> Subject: [OKDXA] NOAA Predicts Solar Cycle 24
> To: "'Discussion of OKDXA'" <okdxa at mailman.qth.net>
> Date: Friday, May 8, 2009, 11:50 AM
> NOAA Predicts Solar Cycle 24
> 
>  
> 
> May 8, 2009: A new active period of Earth-threatening solar
> storms will be
> the weakest since 1928 and its peak is still four years
> away, after a slow
> start last December, predicts an international panel of
> experts led by
> NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Even so, Earth
> could get hit by a
> devastating solar storm at any time, with potential damages
> from the most
> severe level of storm exceeding $1 trillion. NASA funds the
> prediction
> panel.
> 
> Solar storms are eruptions of energy and matter that escape
> from the sun and
> may head toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage
> satellites and
> power grids, disrupting communications, the electric power
> supply and GPS. A
> single strong blast of solar wind can threaten national
> security,
> transportation, financial services and other essential
> functions.
> 
> The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in
> May 2013 with 90
> sunspots per day, averaged over a month. If the prediction
> proves true,
> Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16,
> which peaked at 78
> daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s,
> when numbered
> cycles began.
> 
> The most common measure of a solar cycle's intensity is the
> number of
> sunspots-Earth-sized blotches on the sun marking areas of
> heightened
> magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more
> likely it is that
> solar storms will occur, but a major storm can occur at any
> time.
> 
> "As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak
> refers to the number
> of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one
> powerful storm
> to cause expensive problems," said NOAA scientist Doug
> Biesecker, who chairs
> the panel. "The strongest solar storm on record occurred in
> 1859 during
> another below-average cycle similar to the one we are
> predicting."
> 
> The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires
> in North America
> and Europe, sent readings of Earth's magnetic field
> soaring, and produced
> northern lights so bright that people read newspapers by
> their light.
> 
> A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found
> that if a storm
> that severe occurred today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in
> damages the
> first year and require four to ten years for recovery,
> compared to $80-125
> billion that resulted from Hurricane Katrina.
> 
> The panel also predicted that the lowest sunspot number
> between
> cycles-or solar minimum-occurred in December 2008, marking
> the end of Cycle
> 23 and the start of Cycle 24. If the December prediction
> holds up, at 12
> years and seven months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest
> since 1823 and the
> third longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on
> average, from
> minimum to minimum.
> 
> An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to
> revise its 2007
> prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start
> in March 2008 and
> peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet
> sun since the last
> prediction has led the panel to a consensus that the next
> cycle will be
> "moderately weak."
> 
> NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the
> nation's first alert of
> solar activity and its effects on Earth. The Center's space
> weather experts
> issue outlooks for the next 11-year solar cycle and warn of
> storms occurring
> on the Sun that could impact Earth. SWPC is also the world
> warning agency
> for the International Space Environment Service, a
> consortium of 12 member
> nations.
> 
> As the world economy becomes more reliant on
> satellite-based communications
> and interlinked power grids, interest in solar activity has
> grown
> dramatically. In 2008 alone, SWPC acquired 1,700 new
> subscription customers
> for warnings, alerts, reports, and other products. Among
> the new customers
> are emergency managers, airlines, state transportation
> departments, oil
> companies, and nuclear power stations. SWPC's customers
> reside in 150
> countries.
> 
> "Our customer growth reflects today's reality that all
> sectors of society
> are highly dependent on advanced, space-based
> technologies," said SWPC
> director Tom Bogdan. "Today every hiccup from the sun aimed
> at Earth has
> potential consequences."
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
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