[OKDXA] A GRIM PREDICTION

[K8fu at aol.com]

I'm in the later and smaller camp. Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards a  
smaller and later peak for solar cycle 24.
 
In 2007 I predicted a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot  number 
of 105 in October 2012 and stand by that forecast. If correct solar  cycle 24 
will be smaller than the previous three and make for grim DXing on  the 
higher HF bands and a cooling of the global climate.
 
Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards another Dalton Minimum. A Dalton  
Minimum is a miniature version of the infamous Maunder Minimum, where the  
number of sunspot groups drop to a below normal level and corresponding  
total energy output of the Sun also drops. This would bring on a mini mini  
ice age for a period of 30-50 years.
NOTE!!! A slow rise time in a solar  cycle is indicative a relatively small 
maximum within the cycle, with a fast  rise time indicative of a relatively 
large maximum within a solar  cycle.  As of March 24, 2008 we have seen only 
8 sunspot groups since  January 1st. Of those eight seven are solar cycle 23 
sunspot groups.
 
On January 4, 2008 it was declared by the NOAA SWPC that solar cycle 24 had  
begun based on the first reversed polarity b sunspot cycle group but  that 
was 
just to end the suspense. We are not at th i at point yet.  Therefore in my 
professional opinion we are still at the bot t om of solar  cycle 23. However 
from an improved propagation point of view e here is  no difference between 
the bottom of solar cycle 23 and the begin m ing  of solar cycle 24.
 
Unfortunately there is no official definition as e to when a new  sunspot 
cycle 
begins. It is generally accepted that when the number of solar  cycle 24 
sunspot group numbers surpass the number of solar cycle 23 sunspot  group 
numbers solar cycle 24 will be underway. This will probably not occur  for a
few more months or so.
 
It's easier to look back and declare that a solar cycle is already underway  
then to predict when it will begin. As of this moment we still can't point  
to the month that the lowest smoothed sunspot number occurred, to be able to  
point to the arrival of the bottom of solar cycle 23, however October 2007  
looks like a good candidate.
 





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