[OKDXA] New Solar Cycle

[Kim Elmore]

As I understand the solar cycle definition, 
yes.  The next obvious questions are: Will Cycle 
24 be big or small? When will we see the peak? 
How long will the peak last? When can we work 
<pick the needed country or contries> on 10 m with 100 mW? :)

No one can say. Work what you can with skill and 
understanding ;) Enjoy good conditions the low 
bands because they won't stay real good once the cycle becomes active.

Kim N5OP


At 02:47 PM 1/6/2008, you wrote:
>Kim,
>
>Okay, but is it really the start of a new solar cycle?  ;-)  We are still
>skeptical.
>
>Coy
>--
>Coy Day, N5OK
>20685 SW 29
>Union City, OK 73090
>405-483-5632
>
>Kim Elmore wrote:
> > Having read in replies here that there is a fair
> > bit of confusion about what this says, along with
> > some derision about why it's written the way it is, I looked it all up.
> >
> > Concerning the terms used (nomenclature),
> > remember that discussions like this are usually
> > intended for an audience that's pretty familiar
> > with some of the details of the subject matter,
> > much like a meteorological discussion like might be found here
> >
> > 
> http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
> >
> > The discussion above is intended for other
> > meteorologists, but is also made available to the
> > general public as a matter of course. What you
> > see reported by Dave (which came from
> > spaceweather.com, but was created in Boulder at a
> > solar forecast lab there. It is a discussion
> > intended primarily for geophysicists and other
> > solar physicists, so it uses the terms of their discipline.
> >
> > As for the terms used, here goes:
> >
> > At 09:25 AM 1/5/2008, you wrote:
> >>Here's more info:
> >>
> >>Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
> >>SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2008
> >>
> >>IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
> >>to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 980 (S06E29)
> >
> > These numbers identify the active region (active
> > regions include sunspots among other solar
> > phenomenon) with respect to an arbitrary
> > numbering system started 5 January 1972. Active
> > region 10000 was recorded on 14 June 2002.
> > Because of the formatting conventions of this
> > numbering system, they can receive only four
> > numbers. Hence, region 10000 was referred to as
> > region 0000. Sometimes, the preceding zero in
> > understood, so in the case above, what we really have is region 10980.
> >
> > However, we see only the regions on the side of
> > the sun that faces us, and the sun rotates about
> > once every 27 days (the equator rotates faster
> > than the polar regions). Each region receives a
> > number as it appears on the limb of the visible
> > disc, so its possible that the same region may
> > survive an entire rotation. However, because we
> > cannot follow it all the way around, and because
> > these things change fairly rapidly, there's no
> > way of knowing that it's the same region. Hence
> > it receives a new number. Very long-lived regions
> > can receive several different numbers.
> >
> > The location given for the region (S06E29) gives
> > its location on the visible disc using
> > heliographic latitude and longitude. This is a
> > coordinate system that applies only to the
> > visible disc, not the entire sun, unlike terrestrial longitude and
> > latitude.
> >
> > How heliocentric longitude and latitude are
> > determined (it's not trivial) is explained here
> > http://www.petermeadows.com/html/location.html.
> >
> >>produced one low level B-class flare during the past 24 hours.
> >
> > Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X
> > according to the peak flux (in watts per square
> > meter, W/sq meter) of 100 to 800 picometer X-rays
> > near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.
> > Each class has a peak flux ten times greater than
> > the preceding one, with X class flares having a
> > peak flux of order 10-4 W/sq meter. Within a
> > class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9, so an
> > X2 flare is twice as powerful as an X1 flare, and
> > is four times more powerful than an M5 flare.
> > Hence, a B-class flare has a peak X-ray flux of about 10-7 W/sq meter.
> >
> >>   The
> >>region continued to decay and is now classified as a simple Axx
> >>sunspot group.
> >
> > This classification method (the McIntosh Sunspot
> > Group Classification) uses one capital letter and
> > two lower case letters. A means that it is a
> > unipolar sunspot group (only one magnetic
> > polarity), the first x means that the spot has no
> > penumbra (a lighter region surrounding the
> > darkest area, called the umbra), and the second x
> > is simply a place filler. This is the simplest kind of sunspot.
> >
> >>New Region 981 (N30E22) is classified as a Cso beta
> >>sunspot group.
> >
> > This group (full number is 10981) appears 30 deg
> > North of the equator (N30E22) and 22 deg East of
> > the central meridian. New sunspot groups usually appear at mid-latitudes.
> >
> > C - Bipolar group with penumbra on one end of
> > group, usually surrounding largest of leading umbra
> > s - Small, symmetric penumbra, elliptical or
> > circular and N-S size smaller than 2.5°.
> > o - open - few, if any, spots between leader and follower spots.
> >
> > Beta comes form the Mount Wilson observatory
> > magnetic classification system and may be
> > somewhat redundant here. Beta means a sunspot
> > group having both positive and negative magnetic
> > polarities, with a simple and distinct division between the polarities.
> >
> >>This region is likely a new solar cycle sunspot
> >>group.  A very faint backsided CME
> >
> > CME refers to a coronal mass ejection. A CME is
> > an ejection of material from the solar corona,
> > usually observed with a white-light images of the
> > solar coronal, called a coronagraph. "Backside"
> > refers to the trailing region of the sunspot group
> >
> >>  was observed on LASCO C2 imagery
> >>at 4/1454Z.
> >
> > LACO refers to the Large Angle and Spectrometric
> > Coronagraph Experiment. The C2 refers to the C2
> > coronagraph, which images the corona from about 1.5 to 6 solar radii.
> >
> > There!  Now you know something about how to interpret these discussions.
> >
> > 73,
> >
> > Kim Elmore (N5OP)
> >
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> >
>
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