[OKDXA] POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL

[wade]

Updated: 23:10 UTC on 26 July 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 27 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27-28 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 30, 15, 15 (27 JULY - 30 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO
HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
   MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO
CENTRAL
   RUSSIA.

   NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE
PERIODS OF
   ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     The anticipated coronal mass ejection noted in the Watch has
arrived at
22:50 UTC. Major to severe auroral storming is expected to commence
within
the next several hours. There is a good chance auroral activity will
once
again be visible across many middle latitude regions.

     This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
27 July. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **


Wade Norris K5WPN/AAA6OK/KE5BAV
OMISS MEMBER #4977
SOUTHERN OKLA DX CLUB
OKLA ARMY MARS/ GARVIN CO SKYWARN
DUNCAN, OKLAHOMA EM14