[NLRS] ARRL Propagation Bulletin 3-7-14 EDITED

[W0WOI at aol.com]

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10   ARLP010
March 7, 2014

Average daily sunspot numbers were up for  the reporting
period (February 27 through March 5) and average daily  solar flux
decreased slightly, compared to the previous seven days.   Average
daily sunspot numbers increased nearly 29 points to 202.4,  and
average daily solar flux was off a little more than four points  to
162.9.

NASA has a new prediction for the current solar cycle,  slightly
revised from a month earlier. The current version updated March  3,
2014 is here:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml  

The revision is a smoothed sunspot peak of 69 late last summer
(2013)  from 67 earlier in the same summer in the report a month
earlier. These  numbers are only recently known because the smoothed
sunspot number uses a  whole year of data. If activity continues to
increase, then it will drag this  smoothed maximum further out,
perhaps to early this year. But there  definitely is a strong second
peak happening now, stronger than the  first.

The average of daily sunspot numbers for February 2014 was  the
highest of the current solar cycle at 174.6.   The last time it  was higher 
was  September 2002 when it was 206.4.

Running smoothed  3-month moving average of sunspot numbers, now that 
February is over,  the  average for the three months centered on January 2014 at 
138.5.   This is also a high for this solar cycle 24  which seemed to have 
an earlier peak based on this moving average toward  the end of 2011.

Here is an article noting this second peak is larger than  the first, and 
that this slow cycle may have a much broader peak than earlier  cycles:

http://sidc.oma.be/news/240/welcome.html