[NLRS] Possible meteor activity due to Comet 209P/LINEAR:

[W0WOI at aol.com]

Possible meteor activity due to Comet  209P/LINEAR: 
 
Of greatest potential significance this quarter, indeed this  year, is an 
encounter between the Earth and a number of dust trails left by  Comet 
209P/LINEAR at its perihelion returns within twenty years to either side  of 1900 
AD. Several predictions have already been issued for what may occur, and  
further updates are likely nearer the event. 
 
Based on the most recent independent calculations by Esko  Lyytinen, 
Mikhail Maslov and J´er´emie Vaubaillon, the strongest  activity from this source 
should happen on May 24, most likely between about 07h  to 08h UT from a 
radiant near the borders of Lynx, Ursa Major and  Camelopardalis, quite close 
to o UMa. The predicted radiant locations fall  within a few degrees of α = 
124° , δ = +79° . 
 
Timings in UT for the centre of the strongest activity overall  are around 
07h 03m (Lyytinen), 07h 21m (Maslov) and 07h 40m (Vaubaillon)  respectively. 
 
However, much is unknown about this comet, including its dust  productivity 
and even its precise orbit. Consequently, while tentative proposals  have 
been made that ZHRs at best could reach 100+, perhaps up to storm  
proportions, based purely on the relative approach distances between the Earth  and 
the computed dust trails, these are far from certain. 
 
The strongest activity could be short lived too, lasting  perhaps between a 
few minutes to a fraction of an hour only. In addition, the  number of dust 
trails involved means there may be more than one peak, and that  others 
could happen outside the “key hour” period, so observers at suitable  
locations are urged to be vigilant for as long as possible to either side of the  
predicted event to record whatever takes place. 
 
Lunar observing circumstances are very positive, with May’s  new Moon on 
the 28th. The north-circumpolar radiant area for many sites means  the three 
main geographic zones where most radio observers are located – Europe,  North 
America and Japan – should be able to follow all that occurs, interference  
permitting. The time of year means the northern nights are close to their  
shortest for visual and imaging work, but the predicted strongest activity  
timings fall perfectly for night-time coverage all across North America and 
the  nearby oceans to its east and west. 
 
Remember, there are no guarantees in meteor astronomy!